Amidst volatile market sentiment, Standard Chartered has issued a new warning for the cryptocurrency market. The bank notes that the market may experience another wave of "final capitulation selling" before a truly broader recovery can begin. According to its latest forecast, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in the coming months, while Ethereum could drop to $1,400.
Short-term pressures remain: macroeconomic headwinds and weakening capital flows.
In a report to clients, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that the crypto market is currently facing multiple pressures, including a deteriorating overall economic environment and a slowdown in ETF inflows.
He believes that while the US economy shows signs of slowing, the market has not yet anticipated a swift rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. With liquidity support potentially delayed, risky assets will naturally come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies will not be immune.
Furthermore, holdings in digital asset ETFs have recently declined, with the average Bitcoin ETF holding falling by approximately 25%. Standard Chartered analysts point out that given the uncertain liquidity outlook, ETF investors are more inclined to reduce their holdings rather than actively buying on dips, which could further amplify market volatility.
Downside targets are clear: BTC $50,000, ETH $1,400.
Regarding price predictions, Kendrick stated that the current correction is not yet complete, and the market still has room to fall further before bottoming out. Standard Chartered estimates that Bitcoin may fall to $50,000 or slightly lower, while Ethereum may decline to $1,400. This means that the market still has a "final cleansing" phase, a process in which investor confidence is further shaken and leveraged positions are forced to be liquidated.
However, the bank also pointed out that these price levels are more likely to be strategic entry ranges rather than the starting point of a long-term trend reversal.
Unlike 2022: The market structure is more mature.
It's worth noting that Standard Chartered believes this correction is fundamentally different from the 2022 Crypto Winter. Back then, the market experienced a chain reaction of collapses due to platform failures and liquidity crises, but this round of adjustments has not yet seen the collapse of large institutions or trading platforms.
This indicates that the structure of the crypto asset market is gradually maturing, and the risk management and regulatory framework is more comprehensive than before. Although price volatility remains high, systemic risks are relatively manageable. This structural resilience may lay the foundation for the next phase of the rebound.
Our long-term view remains unchanged: we are still bullish on 2026.
Despite downward revisions to its short-term forecasts, Standard Chartered remains constructive on the long-term outlook. The bank currently projects that Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, while Ethereum is expected to reach $4,000. Other major digital assets are expected to largely follow the trends of major cryptocurrencies.
In other words, within Standard Chartered's framework, the next few months may be a period of fluctuation and consolidation, but not the end of the bull market.
For investors, this means that market volatility may intensify in the coming months. In an environment of uncertain liquidity and weakening capital momentum, risk management and asset allocation may become more important than directional judgments.
