I'm not very technically savvy, but from the perspective of "marking the boat to find the sword" (a metaphor for clinging to outdated methods), the Bitcoin market, starting from the 10.11 event, went through three phases: First, it directly trapped people, catching them off guard by the bull market's momentum. Second, it was the most brutal, uprooting those who believed the bull market was still going strong or those who were trapped and refused to admit defeat. Third, it forced people to sell at a loss, essentially confirming the bear market. Those with weak resolve or excessive leverage were all wiped out. But... the most despairing phase isn't even this one. The first three phases actually perfectly match the bear market rhythm of the "marking the boat to find the sword" method. If this pattern continues, there should be a truly "desperate" phase later—a continuous, small-scale decline until everyone becomes numb, indifferent, and without expectation. This process isn't achieved through price drops, but through gradual, grinding down!

This describes the bear market transition from the previous bull market. 1, 2, and 3 correspond perfectly. 4 represents a continuous, gradual decline. Note that both charts are daily charts.

Generally, it follows a five-wave pattern (1-2-3-4-5). The third wave has ended, and we're probably currently in the fourth phase, experiencing a relatively weak two to three months of rebound and consolidation. There will be a fifth wave of significant decline, followed by a period of sideways movement, which would be a good time to buy the dips. 😂😂😂

The five-wave or three-push theory perfectly aligns with the psychology of retail investors, so it makes sense. 😜