Bitcoin's volatility is increasing rapidly again, while the flow of BTC from whales to exchanges is also escalating, often signaling that selling pressure may increase.
After months of sideways movement, BTC 's price fluctuations have become larger and more frequent, significantly increasing the risk for leveraged traders. Data on inflows from large wallets is also being closely monitored as it may reflect profit-taking or defensive sentiment.
- Bitcoin volatility has increased after a long period of calm, raising the risk of leverage liquidation.
- Whales (100+ BTC) increasing BTC transfers to exchanges is usually associated with selling pressure.
- The $60,000 level becomes a key point to watch if the downtrend continues.
The quiet period for Bitcoin is over.
The significant volatility of BTC in early February suggests the market has moved out of a sideways trend, with rapid drops and rallies potentially triggering liquidations on both the Longing and Short sides.
According to Alphractal, the most significant fluctuations occurred between February 5th and 6th. Bitcoin dropped 14.3% before rebounding 12.2% in a short period, a type of movement often accompanied by heavy liquidation in both buy and sell positions.
Following this "shakeout," both the 30-day and 180-day volatility charts are trending upwards. This is not uncommon: when volatility is compressed for weeks or months, prices often react with a rapid and sharp breakout or drop.
This also serves as a warning to leveraged traders. When the range widens suddenly, stop-loss orders can be repeatedly triggered, and positions can "vanish" very quickly in either direction. In such an environment, risk management is often more important than predicting the direction of the move.
Bitcoin whales increase coin transfers to exchanges.
Binance inflow data from large wallets shows a significant increase in BTC flowing onto the exchange when the price falls, a signal often associated with preparation for selling or position restructuring.
Data tracking Binance's inflows from large holdings (100+ BTC) shows an upward trend of coins moving to the exchange during the period when Bitcoin slipped from the $95,000 region to near $60,000.
The Medium monthly inflow increased from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 3,000 BTC. On February 6th alone, there was a surge of approximately 12,000 BTC in a single day.
Since February 1st, there have been seven trading days recording inflows from whales exceeding 5,000 BTC per day, a frequency described as unusual. Such sharp increases typically occur near market peaks or during panic sell-offs.
If the number of sellers increases while new money inflows into the market are not strong enough, short-term supply pressure could exceed demand. In a highly volatile environment, coin transfers to exchanges are often considered data to watch closely because they can precede subsequent price swings.
Downward pressure remains as technical indicators weaken.
BTC is trading below its 20-day Medium , the RSI is below 40, and the DMI is skewed towards the sell side, indicating that the short-term trend remains fragile despite the return of volatility.
At the time of recording in the original content, Bitcoin was significantly lower than the 20-day moving average around $77,000, trading at $67,800. Notably, the drop to the $60,000 region was only accompanied by a weak rebound, implying that the buying support was not yet convincing.
An RSI below 40 indicates momentum is leaning toward a decline. Simultaneously, the DMI reflects selling pressure as the negative trendline remains firmly above the positive trendline.
Combining the signals: volatility has increased, whales are actively trading, but the trend structure may be vulnerable. In other words, the buyers still need to do more to regain control, especially as the inflow of coins onto exchanges is increasing.
The $60,000 level is a key milestone in the bearish scenario.
If the market continues to weaken, the $60,000 level is a key area to watch, as it has acted as a price pull during recent dips and could determine short-term sentiment.
In the context of rapidly changing macroeconomic risks and market liquidation , round milestones like $60,000 often become psychological "strategic anchors." When prices approach these levels, the reaction is usually evident in Dip-hunting buying, defensive behavior from sellers, and the level of leverage liquidation.
If this zone is broken with large selling volume, pressure could spread due to stop-loss and liquidation effects. Conversely, if BTC holds the $60,000 zone and forms a stronger rebound than before, it could alleviate concerns about a deeper sell-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is increased Bitcoin volatility after a period of sideways movement important?
When volatility is "compressed" for a long time, the market often releases it with rapid and large upward/downward movements. This increases the risk of liquidation, especially with leveraged trading, and may signal a period of sharp revaluation.
Is the flow of BTC from whales onto exchanges always a sell signal?
It's not always about selling immediately, but moving BTC to an exchange is often a preparatory step for selling, margin trading, or rebalancing. When the frequency and size of inflows increase sharply while the price is falling, the market usually XEM it as a sign of increasing supply pressure.
Why is the $60,000 mark XEM a key level?
This price zone has been mentioned as a touchpoint in the recent downtrend, so it has psychological and technical significance. The price reaction around $60,000 could indicate whether buying pressure is strong enough to absorb selling pressure.
