Analysis: January CPI is expected to continue its cooling trend; the Federal Reserve may remain on hold in the short term.

According to ME News, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January's CPI data at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, February 13 (UTC+8). The market expects the overall CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year in January, lower than the previous value of 2.7%; the core CPI is also expected to fall to 2.5% year-on-year, while the month-on-month growth rate may rise to 0.3%. If the data meets expectations, overall inflation will fall to its lowest level since May 2025, continuing the trend of decline from the peak last September. Analysts point out that the slowdown in housing cost increases may suppress service prices, but tariff transmission, corporate price increases at the beginning of the year, and travel-related sub-items may still support inflation. RBC expects the core CPI to reach 0.4% month-on-month, higher than market expectations. Although inflation data may further cool, the market generally believes it will be difficult to shake the Federal Reserve's current "wait-and-see" stance. CME Group tools show that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until at least July is high. Economists point out that against the backdrop of fiscal expansion and the previous three rate cuts, policymakers are more concerned about the sustainability of the decline in inflation and the performance of the labor market. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. Some institutions believe that even if inflation falls to 2.5%, it will still be within the "normal range," but the policy path is unlikely to see significant adjustments in the short term based on a single month's data. (Source: ME)