The Times of Israel reports that an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist is suspected of using classified information accessible during his service to place bets on the prediction market Polymarket. The soldier and a civilian have been formally charged by authorities, with the Israeli Ministry of Defense, the National Security Agency, and police stating that they face charges of serious security crimes, bribery, and obstruction of justice.
The Israel Defense Forces are suspected of using classified information to place bets in prediction markets.
On February 12, the Israeli Ministry of Defense, the Shin Bet Agency, and the police announced that an IDF reservist and a civilian had been formally charged with using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market Polymarket. Officials stated that the two face charges including serious security crimes, bribery, and obstruction of justice.
Several suspects (including reservists) were arrested during the investigation on suspicion of betting on whether military action would occur, based on classified information accessible to them while on duty. However, details of the case are currently restricted by a court injunction and have not yet been fully released.
The Israeli military has charged the suspect with three counts.
The Israeli military emphasized that using classified information for such financial or gambling operations poses a substantial risk to military operations and national security, and law enforcement will continue to investigate and hold those responsible accountable. Other reports indicate that the military has not yet found any "actual damage" at the direct operational level, but still classifies it as a serious violation that crosses red lines.
In fact, as early as January of this year, reports surfaced in Israel that national security agencies were investigating whether someone had used inside information to bet on Polymarket. An account named ricosuave666 was observed making highly accurate bets on Israeli military action against Iran in June 2025, earning approximately $150,000.
Market forecasting requires pause, observation, and listening: Pay attention to the government's bottom line.
This incident also shows that prediction markets still operate on the fringes of regulation in most countries. While trading based on events like sports or cryptocurrency prices might not be strictly monitored, trading involving national security or even elections is a red line for governments worldwide. The discussions among many KOLs on Twitter about betting on a Taiwan Strait conflict for profit likely raise similar concerns.
Taiwan has also seen cases of people violating the Election and Recall Law by participating in presidential election prediction markets. The financial flows of these prediction markets are transparent, allowing prosecutors to trace them back to centralized exchanges. Generally, most centralized exchanges cooperate with law enforcement investigations.
( How I got caught in the Polymarket election betting scandal? )
Under Section 88-1 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election Recall Act, anyone who gambles in public places or public areas with the election results as the object of their gambling activities will face imprisonment for up to six months or a fine. This also applies to gambling conducted using telecommunications equipment, the internet, or similar means. Furthermore, providing a venue for gambling or organizing gambling activities may result in imprisonment for up to five years and a fine.
This article, which discusses the Israeli military's alleged use of classified information to place bets on the prediction market Polymarket, first appeared on ABMedia, a ABMedia .
