On February 13, a Reuters poll showed that the median forecast from economists surveyed indicated that the U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in January, similar to the growth rate in December. Economists' expectations ranged from 0.1% to 0.4%. The year-on-year CPI growth rate was projected at 2.5%, a decline from December's 2.7%, which economists attributed primarily to the fact that last year's higher inflation rate was no longer included in the calculation.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a recalculated seasonal adjustment factor when it publishes the January CPI report, reflecting price changes in 2025. This may lead to revisions to the seasonally adjusted CPI index over the past five years. Economists believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' updated calculation model may not be able to resolve the January effect of CPI data: CPI data exceeds expectations every January. (Jinshi)
