On February 13, according to Chinese analyst Murphy, Bitcoin's LTH-RPRL (realized profit/loss ratio for long-term holders) fell below 1 for the first time in this cycle, the last time this happened was on May 9, 2022; LTH-SOPR also fell below 1 at the same time, indicating that LTH has not only lost money overall, but is also being sold at a loss.
Murphy stated that current market sentiment is extremely fragile, typically characterized by "ignoring positive news and amplifying negative news." During this phase, it's easy for "an event to exacerbate panic, causing LTH sentiment to collapse; this is often the final tremor of every bear market." Historically, when LTH-RPRL falls below 1, the probability of BTC entering a deep bear market becomes extremely high. Note that "deep bear market" here doesn't refer to a deep price drop, but rather a prolonged duration.
