Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $410.4 million (approximately 593.1 billion won) in outflows, ending the strong buying momentum that began the week. On the same day, Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price target, indicating a simultaneous cooling of institutional investor sentiment. The Bitcoin ETF market, which peaked in assets under management (AUM) in October, is now facing its fourth consecutive week of net outflows. Data from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs showed a net outflow of $410.4 million (approximately 593.1 billion won) on the 13th (local time). According to data provider SoSoValue, this brings the cumulative net outflow for the week to $375.1 million (approximately 542 billion won). If there are no significant inflows on Friday, the last trading day before the weekend, US Bitcoin spot ETFs will record a fourth consecutive week of net outflows. These ETFs' assets under management (AUM) currently stand at around $80 billion, nearly halving from their peak of nearly $170 billion in October 2025. Standard Chartered: "Bitcoin is open to $50,000 for now." In a report published the same day, Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000. The bank warned that it anticipates a near-term downside and that a recovery phase could only begin after Bitcoin falls to the $50,000 level. Standard Chartered predicted that "additional 'price sell-offs' will continue in the coming months," and suggested a potential bottom for Bitcoin at around $50,000 and for Ethereum (ETH) at around $1,400 (approximately 20.23 million won). However, the bank also assumed that after passing these levels, a rebound would continue until the end of the year. According to the report, Standard Chartered projected a year-end Bitcoin price of $100,000 and an Ethereum price of $4,000 (approximately 57.8 million won), simultaneously leaving open both short-term 'downside risk' and mid-term 'upside potential.'
Solana ETF alone saw net inflows, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple ETFs all faced headwinds.
All 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a simultaneous sell-off. According to Farside, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Wise Origins Bitcoin Fund were hit the hardest, recording net outflows of $157.6 million (approximately 227.8 billion won) and $104.1 million (approximately 150.3 billion won), respectively. The outflows from these two industry leaders suggest a rapid shift in short-term sentiment among institutions and high-net-worth investors. Ethereum ETFs experienced a similar situation, with a single-day outflow of $113.1 million (approximately 163.4 billion won), bringing the cumulative net outflow for the week to $171.4 million (approximately 247.7 billion won). If this trend continues, Ethereum ETFs, like Bitcoin, will likely see a fourth consecutive week of capital outflows. The Ripple (XRP) ETF recorded a net outflow of $6.4 million (approximately 9.3 billion won) for the first time since February 3rd. Even the XRP ETF, which had previously enjoyed relatively stable supply and demand, has now turned to selling, indicating a strengthening risk-aversion across the market. On the other hand, the Solana (SOL) ETF was an exception. It saw a net inflow of $2.7 million (approximately 3.9 billion won), making it the only major cryptocurrency ETF to see inflows. Amidst the simultaneous outflows from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple ETFs, the selective inflow into the Solana ETF signals that investors still see growth and recovery potential in certain altcoins."Extreme Bear Market Still Ahead"... CryptoQuant Predicts Bitcoin's Bottom at $55,000
Standard Chartered's downward revision is in line with the market's prediction that Bitcoin could collapse to $60,000. CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, recently pointed out in a report that Bitcoin's Realized Price (the average purchase price by market participants) is currently around $55,000 (approximately 79.48 million won), but that this support level has not yet been tested. CryptoQuant analyzed that "Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom is around $55,000 as of today," and that "the market cycle indicator is not yet in the 'extreme bear' zone, but rather in the simple bear phase." Their "Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" has shown a pattern of entering the 'extreme bear' zone just before forming a bottom in past cycles, but has not yet reached that stage in this cycle. This suggests that it will take more time to reach the typical bear market low, and that the price may undergo another deep correction. CryptoQuant emphasized, "Historically, the true bottom of the Bitcoin bear market has been formed when long-term holders (LTH) can withstand a 30-40% loss." They added, "Currently, LTH holders are selling at breakeven levels, so a further downward correction may be necessary for the market to fully 'reset.'"Bitcoin struggles to break above $66,000... ETF and on-chain signals still favor corrections.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading around $66,000 (approximately 95.47 million won) as of the 13th, and at one point, it fell to $65,250 (approximately 94.34 million won) during the session. While the price appears to be consolidating from its peak, ETF flow and on-chain indicators suggest that short-term downward pressure still dominates. Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin and Ethereum will recover after hitting $50,000 and $1,400, respectively. CryptoQuant, based on realized prices and long-term holder losses, suggests that $55,000 is the "bottom of this cycle." While these two forecasts differ in their numerical values, they serve as important reference points for the market, as they both envision a "short-term decline followed by a medium-term rebound." However, looking at the long term, Bitcoin ETFs still maintain around $80 billion in assets under management, and there has been no significant sell-off (capitalization) by long-term holders. This signals that institutional and long-term investors still believe in the long-term growth potential of major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, despite the short-term correction. With ETF fund outflows, warnings from on-chain indicators, and downward revisions from global investment banks, the Bitcoin market is likely to remain volatile and uncertain for the time being. However, depending on the price range at which this correction concludes and marks the beginning of a new bull cycle, the mid- to long-term trajectories of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana toward 2026 will likely be redrawn.💡 Investment standards that remain unshaken even in volatility, from TokenPost Academy
With ETF outflows, warnings from on-chain indicators, and downside reports from global investment banks, the market presents both fear for beginners and opportunity for prepared investors.
This is why you need to go beyond simply focusing on price and become a "macro master" who can interpret ETF, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals simultaneously.
TokenPost Academy offers a seven-step masterclass to help you survive in this market environment and lead the next cycle.
If you're feeling uneasy about this adjustment, now is the time to systematically organize everything from the basics to macro analysis, DeFi, and futures/options.
Step 1: The Foundation – From the concepts of major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana to wallet security, deposits and withdrawals, and taxes, we'll cover everything you need to know before investing.
Step 2: The Analyst – Verifies the project's fundamentals using tokenomics and on-chain data, not just price.
This is a process of developing an eye for reading and interpreting indicators presented in articles, such as ETF fund flow, realized price, and long-term holder (LTH) profit and loss range.
Step 3: The Strategist – This is the portfolio and risk management part that answers the question, “Should I sell here or buy more?”
We systematically design cash ratios, cumulative purchases (DCA), and long-term/short-term Bitcoin ratios that can withstand adjustments and bear markets.
Step 4: The Trader – Covers technical analysis and real-world trading strategies to find opportunities in short-term volatility zones , such as the $60,000 price action.
By understanding candlesticks, support/resistance, trend lines, and various order types, you'll learn how to determine entry and liquidation timing based on your own standards, not based on "other people's trading."
Step 5: The DeFi User – Go beyond simple holdings and diversify your income sources with staking, lending, LP, and yield farming .
We'll cover understanding USDe, stablecoins, LTV, and liquidation structures, and how to utilize DeFi to protect your assets and earn interest even during periods of adjustment.
Step 6: The Professional (Futures/Options) – How to utilize additional declines and lows as suggested by Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant.
This is an advanced level where you'll learn "professional tools," including hedging and shorting strategies using futures and options, as well as leverage risk management. (Focusing on thorough risk management)
Step 7: The Macro Master – Bitcoin halving, global liquidity, ETF AUM changes, etc.
Develop the ability to anticipate the next bull/bear market by organizing the macro cycles and fund flows that appear in the article into a frame.
The next trajectory for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana toward 2026:
It depends on “how you interpret and prepare for the current adjustment.”
At TokenPost Academy, cut through the noise of the market and gain the insight of the top 1%, driven by numbers and structure.
Curriculum : 7-step masterclass from basics to macro analysis, DeFi, and futures options.
Special offer : Get your first month free!
Go to : https://www.tokenpost.kr/membership
🔎 Market Interpretation
A single-day outflow of $410.4 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised the possibility of a fourth consecutive week of net outflows. Assets under management (AUM) have shrunk from a peak of approximately $170 billion in October 2025 to the current $80 billion, intensifying the trend of both institutions and individuals reducing their Bitcoin exposure.
Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000, citing a potential short-term drop to $50,000. Market analysis firm CryptoQuant also sees the "ultimate bear market bottom" at around $55,000, suggesting that the price has not yet entered a full-blown extreme bear market.
Looking at ETF fund trends, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs experienced simultaneous outflows, while only the Solana ETF recorded a slight net inflow, revealing a significant divergence in preference within altcoins. BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity ETFs saw the largest outflows, indicating a surge in profit-taking and risk reduction, even in large-cap products.
💡 Strategy Points
1) Monitoring ETF Fund Flows: While sustained net outflows increase short-term bearish pressure, a rebound rally is also possible when excessive outflows peak, so it's important to monitor daily and weekly flow reversals.
2) Price Band Management: Major research suggests the $50,000-$55,000 range is considered a potential floor candidate. Managing current volume with a split buy/sell strategy and adjusting position size based on whether the market breaks out of the strong selling range (around $60,000) is a valid approach.
3) On-chain data for long-term holders: Currently, long-term holders (LTH) have not reached the 30-40% loss level, which is still below the "true bottom" threshold of past cycles. An increase in the on-chain loss rate for long-term holders, accompanied by a sell-off pattern on-chain, can be used as a more structural bottom signal.
4) Asset Diversification: Even amidst simultaneous outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the Solana ETF is seeing net inflows, increasing the possibility of decoupling across coins and sectors. A strategy that diversifies portfolios by separately examining the on-chain, technological, and regulatory issues of individual assets is becoming increasingly important from a risk management perspective.
📘 Glossary
• Spot Bitcoin ETF: An exchange-traded fund that holds actual Bitcoin as its underlying asset and tracks its price. Investors buy and sell the ETF through their stock accounts, while the issuer purchases and stores the actual Bitcoin.
• Outflows: Investments leaving an ETF indicate that investors are selling and liquidating their holdings. Continued outflows may reflect weakening investor sentiment toward the asset.
• Assets Under Management (AUM): The total value of assets held by an ETF. This value fluctuates based on the ETF's price and the size of its fund creation and redemption. It serves as an indicator of the product's size and popularity in the market.
• Realized Price: This is the average purchase price of Bitcoin in the market, estimated using on-chain data. This represents the average cost price for current holders and often serves as a long-term support or resistance level.
• Long-Term Holder (LTH): This refers to an address that has held coins for more than 155 days, and is considered a ‘core investor’ who is less sensitive to price fluctuations than short-term speculators.
• Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator: This indicator combines on-chain and price data to determine whether the market is in a bullish (bull), bearish (bear), or extreme bearish phase, and is used as a reference for assessing the bottom formation period.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q.
If more than $400 million were to be withdrawn from a Bitcoin ETF, would that have a significant immediate impact on the price?
An outflow from an ETF means investors are selling their holdings. Typically, the asset manager will resell that amount of Bitcoin on the market, increasing selling pressure. However, some of this has already been absorbed through futures and market making, and in areas with high spot trading volume, the short-term price impact may be limited. The key question, rather than the scale of the outflow, is whether this outflow continues for several weeks and whether other institutional and individual demand will absorb this volume.
Q.
Standard Chartered says it could drop to $50,000, but they're talking about $100,000 by the end of the year. Isn't that contradictory?
It's difficult to see this as a contradiction, as the short-term outlook and the mid- to long-term outlook may differ. This report suggests a "pathway" where, in the coming months, ETF outflows and deteriorating investor sentiment will lead to further declines (e.g., to $50,000-$55,000), followed by a recovery to a higher price range by the end of the year as the market digests the bear market and demand revives. In other words, this can be understood as a scenario with both upper and lower limits, assuming significant volatility in the interim.
Q.
How should a novice investor respond to a period of bearish signals like the current one?
First, it's important to avoid leveraging or strategies that seek large profits in a short period of time, and to limit your investment size to a level you can afford to lose. Second, while referring to "bottom potential zones" (e.g., $50,000-$55,000) identified by on-chain indicators and institutional reports, it's more beneficial to split your investments across multiple zones or reserve some cash rather than aiming for a precise bottom. Third, structuring your portfolio to avoid over-concentration in any one asset by mixing Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and cash, and periodically reassessing your allocations, will help with risk management.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
Get real-time news... Go to TokenPost Telegram
Are you hesitating about when to buy or sell and missing the timing?
Determine your investment direction with real-time positive and negative signals analyzed by TokenPost AI.
Copyright © TokenPost. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited.
