Strategy's mNAV has compressed from 3.4x to 0.91x in under 14 months, and the speed of that repricing tells you something important. Wall Street trimmed $5.38B in holdings during Q3 while Bitcoin prices were stable. Institutions weren't deleveraging, they were reallocating toward IBIT, which now holds 767k BTC without the corporate wrapper, dilution mechanics, or $888M in annual obligations. The premium compression bear case has played out. But while Chanos made 100% and walked away, the consensus has overshot into death spiral territory that doesn't survive a look at the actual balance sheet: - $2.25B in cash - No converts maturing before 2028 - $3.9B raised in January while Bitcoin was selling off The real story is what's hiding inside the MSCI decision everyone read as bullish tho: Exclusion was deferred, yes (good). But MSCI simultaneously ruled that newly issued shares from digital asset treasury companies no longer count toward index weight calculations. That structurally removes the passive bid that made @Strategy's dilution funded accumulation model work. The flywheel lost a gear at the exact moment the headline risk disappeared. Full analysis from @machinesmoneyA1 ↓ twitter.com/a1research__/statu...
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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