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With Nvidia's earnings report about to be released, the market expects a "bright" report. But can the actual earnings report "soothe" investors' fragile hearts amid such high expectations?
After the US stock market closed on February 25, Nvidia released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Due to the increased investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure by major technology companies in the second half of 2025, the market expects increased demand for Nvidia's business, and its performance expectations have also increased accordingly.
Currently, adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter are expected to be $1.54, with revenue of $66.1 billion. In addition, the market expects data center revenue of approximately $60.7 billion in January and first-quarter revenue of $72.9 billion.
Due to increased investment in artificial intelligence funds and overly positive market sentiment, Nvidia has experienced short-term stock speculation. Currently, Nvidia's stock price in the US is up 2.14%, leading the gains among the seven major tech companies, indicating a clear period of market enthusiasm.
The risk market is always about trading beyond expectations, so the current market is not trading on current expectations, but rather on the future potential of Nvidia. Several points need to be noted:
1. How are Blackwell chips selling? Given the US technology restrictions, can Blackwell provide Nvidia with better growth momentum?
2. Will the growth in the first quarter of 2026 exceed the expected $72.9 billion?
3. Can the gross profit margin be maintained above 75%?
What are venture capitalists expecting in the future? The biggest risk for Nvidia's earnings report tonight is not during the US stock trading session, but after the report is released!
A. Exceeding expectations: If the financial report shows that Blackwell's sales are strong, with 2026 growth exceeding expectations and gross margin showing stable growth, then the next few days this week present a good window for short-term profit-taking, especially for short-term traders. Current market expectations are positive, so once the good news is priced in, be wary of "sell the news!"
B. Below expectations. Current market sentiment is optimistic, but if the actual situation falls short of expectations, the optimism will be over. Concerns about artificial intelligence will continue to grow in the coming days. Coupled with the market exceeding expectations and the actual financial report falling short of market expectations, the stock price will inevitably be under pressure in the short term.
At this point, it is necessary to patiently wait for the right time to buy or add to the position. Nvidia is the world's largest company by market capitalization and a leader in the artificial intelligence concept. It still has potential in the future. However, if there is a disappointing sell-off due to its short-term overvaluation, it will inevitably create a reasonable buying point or buy the dips position.
Personal trading strategy:
1. I sold some of my NVDA spot holdings last night, which was a reduction in my holdings. I was planning to buy back in after the earnings report was released. To be honest, I didn't expect the earnings report expectations to only take effect today. I sold my holdings too early!
2. Contracts: The low-leverage contracts were previously liquidated by #CRCL, resulting in the wiping out of my positions, which was quite regrettable and painful. Fortunately, I still had some funds on hand, so I added to my positions in several NVDA contracts. Currently, the returns are good, with an average cost of 174. I feel the position is good, so I plan to hold them long-term. However, I am prepared for potential drawdowns in profits.
If you are also a short-term trader, I don't recommend doing what I did. Instead, I think you can take partial profits after the financial report is released and then open a new account. If your cost basis is similar to mine or even lower, and if you want to hold for a longer period, I suggest you continue to hold!
US stock trading channel: msx.com/?code=pD0t
@BeliaSchoo91221 @BTCBruce1

麦通MSX
@MSX_CN
02-25
🔥 $NVDA.M 今天盘后要发财报啦!
市场现在都在猜:
· 收入要冲 656 亿(涨 67%)
· 每股赚 1.5 刀(涨 70%)
最想看的三个瓜:
· 新芯片 Blackwell 卖得咋样
· 下季度能赚多少(市场猜 717 亿)
· 75% 的毛利率能不能保住
你来猜猜,这次财报能把 AI 泡沫论打脸不?



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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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