Opinion: The current conflict with Iran has had a negative impact on oil prices, but it is not a shock and is unlikely to trigger an oil crisis.

According to ME News, on March 2nd (UTC+8), Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas, specializing in energy and commodities, wrote that while the Iranian attacks had a negative impact on oil prices, they were not a shock. Blas's article points out that the market's biggest concerns were whether both sides would target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of tanker routes. Neither of these has happened yet. Not yet. Despite concerns that Iran might set fire to the Middle East's energy industry, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet weaponized oil. Israel and the United States have also not targeted Iran's oil infrastructure. Analysts say oil prices will surge, but even the most bullish traders are talking about a potential $100 per barrel, far below the $139 per barrel reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. Using that broad lens, this Middle East attack is unlikely to trigger an oil shock. Furthermore, despite the continued weakness in the physical market, the financial oil market has been bullish, with investors snapping up oil in anticipation of rising prices. A year ago, the 12-day war between Israel and the United States against Iran caught many traders off guard, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude oil prices to surge. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to digest this crisis. (Source: ME)