2025 is a year to watch in the commodities market, especially for gold and silver. These two precious metals have demonstrated strong momentum amidst a changing macroeconomic environment, attracting the attention of numerous investors. According to a report by Kaiko Research, this trend is driven by changes in the monetary environment and structural factors. Gold and silver are not only affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and increased safe-haven demand, but also react strongly to changes in monetary policy, exhibiting a sustained upward trend. Particularly in 2025, gold is expected to rise by over 60%, and silver by as much as 150%, which is also partly attributed to continued growth in industrial demand.
In early 2026, the precious metals market underwent adjustments due to various factors. Kaiko Research points out that gold and silver prices fell sharply following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman. This was interpreted as a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold as the market reflected a shift in policy tone. However, crude oil (WTI) showed a recovery trend starting in early 2026 after a weak performance in 2025, unlike the precious metals market. Crude oil is more influenced by supply and demand factors closely linked to the global economic cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high in 2025, but entered a bear market in the second half of the year, further widening the performance gap with gold. This gap can be observed through Kaiko's BOLD index , which highlights the advantages of building a composite portfolio by investing in both gold and Bitcoin—capturing the gains of Bitcoin in a bull market and taking advantage of the stability of gold in a bear market.
Gold and silver sometimes move in tandem, maintaining a strong positive correlation. However, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold is different; the two assets exhibit different trends depending on the financial environment, though they sometimes move in similar directions. This is due to the different structural drivers of the two assets.
In conclusion, this study, by analyzing market trends in 2025 and early 2026, reiterates to investors the importance of risk management and diversification in a changing environment. In particular, complex diversification strategies like BOLD can be very useful in highly volatile markets. Finally, the high volatility of the speculative and liquid silver market also indicates that the future market environment will require stronger risk management.
