Since 2008, the three major commodity bull markets have all followed a rotational pattern of "gold and silver leading the way → copper confirming → oil igniting → agriculture concluding." Maitong's launch of the Global Agriculture Supply Chain ETF and the Agriculture Leading Enterprises ETF at this time is a very good timing. Here, we can briefly discuss the core logic of the commodity rotation rhythm: 1) When economic uncertainty rises, recession expectations intensify, or geopolitical competition escalates, precious metals, represented by gold, will lead the price surge, becoming a core "safe haven" for funds due to their dual attributes of hedging against inflation and hedging against risk. 2) As global manufacturing enters a restocking cycle and industrial recovery momentum gradually releases, industrial metals, with copper and aluminum as the core, will take over the price increase lead. The recovery in demand coupled with rigid constraints on the supply side pushes prices into an upward channel. 3) Subsequently, crude oil and petrochemical products take over the upward trend. As a core midstream category connecting industrial production and consumer spending, it benefits from the recovery in industrial demand and simultaneously reflects expectations of a recovery in end-consumer spending, completing the midstream transmission link of resource rotation. 4) Once the price surge in precious metals, industrial metals, and energy chemicals has fully played out and prices and valuations have entered a high range, the transmission effect of price increases will spread to end-user sectors related to people's livelihoods. At this point, agricultural resources, which are deeply tied to food security and consumer spending, and where supply and demand remain tight, often become the final major driver of the resource sector's rotation, experiencing a relatively certain catch-up price increase. From this perspective, agricultural products are indeed very likely to take over as the next major driver.
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麦通MSX
@MSX_CN
03-09
MSX 上新| $FTAG.M & $MOO.M & $XLB.M
🌾 $FTAG.M – 全球农业全产业链 ETF
覆盖农机、化肥、种子到加工,地缘冲突催化,农业轮动正当时
🚜 $MOO.M – 全球农业龙头 ETF
重仓 Nutrien、Deere 等巨头,化肥股受益于中东供给冲击
🧱 $XLB.M – 美国基础材料核心 ETF



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