A counterintuitive little-known fact: The Strait of Hormuz has never actually been completely and thoroughly blocked. The so-called "blockade" that people usually hear about in the news is actually a "war threat" or a "local attack on ships". 1. The Tanker War of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s At the time, Iran and Iraq were at their wits' end, and the two sides began to attack each other frantically on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the bombing of hundreds of ships. The counterintuitive oil price trend: You might think oil prices skyrocketed? Not at all! Oil prices actually fell all the way down. Why? Because the world was experiencing a "great oil surplus" in the 1980s. Although there was fighting in the Taiwan Strait, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries were frantically increasing production to grab market share. 2. Iran's "verbal blockade" in 2011-2012 At the time, the US and Europe imposed sanctions on Iran over the nuclear issue, and senior Iranian military officials publicly threatened: "If the sanctions are implemented, not a single drop of oil will be allowed to flow through the Strait of Hormuz!" Oil price trend: Although not a single ship stopped in the Strait, Brent crude oil prices soared from around $100 to a record high of $128 in just a few months, an increase of nearly 30%. What is the current situation? The narratives of a "sixth Middle East war" and a "blockade of the Strait of Hormuz" are fermenting in the market. The election of Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader foreshadows the possibility of a protracted and escalating war. On the polymarket, there is about a 50% probability that Iran will not be able to achieve a ceasefire before May. Market sentiment will instantly shift from "greed" to "panic". The logic behind people's concerns: In this scenario, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil supplies are cut off, oil prices soar, global inflation occurs, the Fed is forced to raise interest rates, the US falls into stagflation, and risk assets plummet. In this scenario, tech stocks and crypto will both decline, haha. The market is in a state of flux. My choice is to hold some F-Samsung oil futures that I bought recently, and Occidental Petroleum, a favorite of Buffett. Holding Occidental Petroleum is to increase my margin of safety.