I have a vague feeling that something big is coming. Last week, MSTR issued $1.18 billion worth of STRC, bringing its total size to over $5 billion. My understanding of MSTR is that by selling fixed-income products like STRC (similar to US Treasury bonds) to relevant financial groups, it shifts BTC volatility from high-frequency, short-cycle trading to low-frequency, long-cycle trading. In the past, BTC cycles were mainly driven by three forces: the supply shock from halvings, retail investor FOMO (fear of missing out), and the spiral of leveraged liquidation during bear markets. STRC introduces a new, continuous source of demand: traditional fixed-income funds. These funds are characterized by their massive size, stable behavior, and stickiness. This means that BTC's demand curve has changed from a pulse-like pattern to a continuous injection. This capital has the potential to initiate a slower and longer bull market for BTC compared to previous cycles. However, at the same time, I believe MSTR will inevitably crash eventually. One of the fundamental ironclad rules of finance: historically, there has never been an asset that only rises and never falls. If an asset truly only rises and never falls, everyone will buy it. Everyone buys, pushing the price to an instant infinity, and then it stops rising. This is a self-contradictory logic. Even an index like the S&P 500 has existed for less than 100 years, and it represents the power of the United States during the peak of the strongest technological revolution in human history, the benefits of globalization, and the hegemony of the US dollar. Even so, buying the S&P 500 in 2000 wouldn't break even until 2013. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, hailed as the "atomic world" and the most widely accepted store of value in 5000 years of human history—gold—would only break even 28 years later in 2008 if bought in 1980. Once BTC enters a long-term downward cycle, MSTR will inevitably be forced to sell Bitcoin, while simultaneously being unable to maintain interest payments on STRC. Just as we cannot predict death, we cannot predict when this will happen, but currently, the upward cycle of the next four years is already being driven by these buyers seeking fixed returns. All we need to do is seize the opportunity before the collapse and make the music as loud as possible.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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