Bitcoin priced the geopolitical risk first. When the US–Iran conflict began, $BTC dropped sharply as it absorbed the geopolitical shock over the weekend. At that point, most would have assumed it was Bitcoin’s capitulation moment, while gold, as the classic safe haven, would continue outperforming. Three weeks later, the picture flipped: BTC +10% Gold -18% Risk Index from capitulation to stabilization Bitcoin sold first, but recovered fastest. The message is clear: Bitcoin has adapted to the shock better than expected, not repriced it as a systemic crisis.