Swissblock

Swissblock

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Pioneering the next investment frontiers, block by block https://linktr.ee/swissblock_?utm_source=linktree_admin_share

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2022 wasn’t just a crash, it was a regime. Risk stayed elevated throughout the year, repeatedly spiking into high-risk zones, and each wave translated into new downside. The midterm year was relevant, but it was also the year major players broke down. Every time systemic risk resurfaced, the Risk Index destabilized and selling pressure intensified. Then FTX hit, the Risk Index re-triggered into high risk, and Bitcoin ultimately formed the macro bottom of the cycle. Throughout 2022, relief rallies appeared, but without sustained risk stabilization, they failed every time. High risk doesn’t just trigger declines, it sustains them. twitter.com/swissblock__/statu...

Bitcoin priced the geopolitical risk first. When the US–Iran conflict began, $BTC dropped sharply as it absorbed the geopolitical shock over the weekend. At that point, most would have assumed it was Bitcoin’s capitulation moment, while gold, as the classic safe haven, would continue outperforming. Three weeks later, the picture flipped: BTC +10% Gold -18% Risk Index from capitulation to stabilization Bitcoin sold first, but recovered fastest. The message is clear: Bitcoin has adapted to the shock better than expected, not repriced it as a systemic crisis. twitter.com/swissblock__/statu...

We’ve officially hit the Low Risk zone. As the Risk Index trends toward Risk = 0, we are entering the optimal window for market exposure. Historically, this is the "sweet spot" where being positioned pays off the most.

It’s not just the $SPX —the $VIX "Fear Gauge" is perhaps the most reliable compass for $BTC as well. Looking at the same volatility spikes, the correlation is undeniable. While VIX > 20 signals local dips, crossing the 40 threshold has historically marked the ultimate "Buy the Blood" moments for Bitcoin. We saw it during the Yen Carry Trade with a massive +95% rally and again during the Tariffs War with a +63% surge. If Iran tensions push us past 40, history suggests the next Bitcoin leg up could be legendary. twitter.com/swissblock__/statu...

After 20 days of extreme negative momentum and a 135-day bearish regime, we are hitting levels rarely seen outside of major market bottoms. Just like the mid-2022 lows, these extreme readings often set the stage for significant long-term upside. Although current risk and momentum indexes continue to signal broad weakness, any sharp reversal in these metrics would likely trigger the next sustained bull run.

Negative momentum is currently extreme as the Bear Market persists following the October 10 flash crash. However, we have recently seen the first failed attempt by buyers to establish a regime change. Historically, momentum readings of +0.5 and -0.5 are key levels that determine substantial shifts in the structural regime. In mid-January, there was an attempt to trigger a bullish structural change, but sellers successfully defended their position, maintaining the bearish structure and returning to an environment of extreme negative momentum. The behavior of momentum at these inflection points is key to determining powerful structural changes in the medium and long term.

Network growth has hit lows not seen since 2022, while liquidity continues to drain. Back in 2022, similar network levels triggered a $BTC consolidation phase as network growth began to recover, even while liquidity remained weak and bottoming out. History shows that the subsequent surge in both metrics fueled the major bull run. Are we currently in the consolidation phase preceding the next big move? Adoption is the missing piece; we need to see those metrics pick up again.

While Long Term Holders show moderate outflows, Whales and Short Term Holders are buying with conviction. This demand is vacuuming exchange liquidity into institutional custody—highlighted by over $1.7B in ETF inflows since Jan 12. Jan 14 alone saw a massive $800M entry, with BlackRock’s IBIT capturing $648M of that total. As institutions effectively "dry up" the market, we are witnessing a textbook Supply Shock pushing $BTC above $97,000.

Bitcoin fundamentals are quietly eroding. Not weak, but no longer providing a mid-term tailwind. This isn’t a short-term collapse, yet it’s enough to keep rallies fragile and put the broader trend under pressure until fundamentals re-stabilize twitter.com/swissblock__/statu...

Bitcoin, what’s the plan? This week could bring a second spike in the Risk-Off Signal. If that spike comes in weaker, it may mark seller exhaustion and strengthen the case for a bottom forming. For now, the ball is in the buyers’ court.

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