Bitcoin's "4-Year Cycle" Isn't Dead Yet! Attention long-term investors! Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, reassured us amidst the despair in his "Wolf of All Streets" podcast, confirming that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is not yet broken and predicting a market recovery in Q4 2026. The question is... does he see something others don't, or is he simply overconfident? 1) 2024 — The Golden Age of Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin Spot ETFs (traded funds holding actual BTC, not just derivatives) were approved in the US. Capital from large financial institutions began to flow in, significantly altering market dynamics. 2) Late 2024 — A Boost from the White House Trump won the election, clearly announcing pro-crypto policies. US regulatory agencies began to relax their stance. Analysts worldwide, including Scaramucci himself, predicted BTC would reach $150,000 in 2025. 3) October 2025 — An unexpected peak. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of approximately $126,000, but instead of continuing to reach $150,000, the market abruptly stalled. 4) After October 2025 — OG Whale begin selling. Scaramucci explains that this is the point where OG Whale (pioneering large-scale Bitcoin investors who held the stock since it was in the hundreds or thousands of dollars) began to sell off their holdings when the price broke through the crucial psychological level of $100,000. This is because they believed in the 4-year cycle — and this mechanism is what makes the cycle "real." "When people believe in something, it often happens — the 4-year cycle becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy." Self-fulfilling prophecy = a prediction that becomes reality. Because people believed and followed. 5) Late 2025 — The year after the Halving closed in the red for the first time in BTC history. It plummeted from a high of $126,000 to a low of around $60,000, closing 2025 in the red, something unprecedented in a post-Halving year. This raised new questions about whether the 4-year cycle had ended. 6) This week — The war further exacerbated an already wounded market. BTC prices plunged below $69,000 last Saturday. Following the prolonged conflict in Iran entering its third week, pressuring risky assets worldwide, the S&P 500 index (a representative index of the US economy) fell by about 1.3% and dropped below the 200-day Moving Average for the first time in 10 months. Some analysts warn that if BTC continues to move in line with the S&P 500, its price could fall another 50% this year. 7) Scaramucci Remains Steadfast — Pointing to Early 2023 as a Lesson After the FTX Exchange (a crypto trading platform that went bankrupt in November 2022 with massive debt) shut down, the market was in a state of stagnation and despair. But that's where the bull run started again in early 2023. Scaramucci isn't always right. He previously predicted $150,000 in 2025 and was wrong. But the reason he gives this time — the OG Whale behavior of cyclical selling and persistent institutional buying — isn't just hope.