Cardano (ADA) Price Eyes a 20% Replay as a Critical Launch Approaches

Cardano (ADA) price trades near $0.25 as a bullish divergence on the 12-hour chart flashes for the second time in three weeks, coinciding with Input Output Global’s confirmation that the Midnight sidechain launches this week.

The launch brings shielded transactions to the Cardano ecosystem, potentially expanding use cases in private DeFi, real-world assets, and payments. Whether the Cardano price can capitalize on this catalyst depends on the technical and on-chain setup underneath.

Bullish Divergence Repeats a Proven Pattern

The 12-hour chart on Kraken shows a standard bullish divergence forming between January 31 and March 22. During that period, the ADA price carved a lower low on the candles while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, printed a higher low. The RSI currently reads 35.39, near oversold territory.

This is not the first time the signal has appeared. An identical divergence formed between January 31 and March 8. After that setup confirmed, Cardano rallied roughly 20% from its base to a high near $0.295. The pattern and percentage are visible on the chart, with a 20.21% move.

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The question now is whether history repeats. The divergence alone does not guarantee a rally, but it establishes that momentum is diverging from price in the same way it did before the last sizeable bounce. More so, before the critical Midnight launch happens.

Midnight is a privacy-focused sidechain built on zero-knowledge technology. It begins in federated mode with key validators before transitioning to full decentralization.

Whether buyers show up to act on it is what the next section addresses.

Whales Add as Sell Pressure Fades

Two of the largest Cardano whale cohorts have been accumulating since the latest dip began around March 18. According to Santiment data, addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their combined stash from 13.56 billion to 13.61 billion since March 19, a net addition of roughly 50 million ADA. The smaller cohort, holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA, started adding on March 20, growing from 5.67 billion to 5.70 billion, an increase of approximately 30 million ADA.

Together, these two groups added over 80 million ADA in four days. The timing aligns with the Midnight announcement from Input Output Global on March 22, suggesting that larger holders positioned themselves ahead of the news rather than reacting to it.

Supporting the case further, sell-side pressure has possibly thinned considerably. The percent of total ADA supply in profit dropped from 15.47% on March 17, when ADA traded near $0.29, to just 5.73% currently. That is a roughly 63% collapse in profitable supply. With fewer holders sitting on gains, the incentive to sell into a bounce weakens significantly.

Whales are adding. Profitable supply has been flushed. The divergence is flashing. But the Cardano price chart determines whether this translates into actual movement.

Cardano Price Levels That Define the Next Move

The immediate floor-like zone sits at $0.248. A daily close below this zone would prematurely invalidate the RSI divergence and open a path toward the year-to-date low near $0.220. However, as long as the RSI maintains its higher low structure, the bullish setup technically remains intact even with minor price dips.

On the upside, the first Cardano price target sits at $0.267, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Beyond that, $0.295 is the previous bounce high and the level where the last divergence-driven rally topped out. A move past $0.295, roughly an 18% rise from current levels, would bring the 0.618 Fib at $0.302 into play. If momentum sustains, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $0.337 becomes the stretched target.

The Midnight launch provides the fundamental catalyst. The RSI divergence provides the technical setup. The whale accumulation and collapsing profitability provide the on-chain confirmation. Currently, holding above $0.245 separates a second divergence-driven bounce from a breakdown toward $0.220.