Brent crude oil prices fluctuated wildly this week, first plunging 11% from a high of $112 at the end of last week to $97, before rebounding to $104. Then, this morning (25th), it fell sharply by 8% to $94.67.
Behind the dramatic price movements lies the market's question: How credible are the things Trump said?
What did Trump say?
On March 25, Trump declared at the White House that the U.S. was "talking to the right people in Iran," saying that Iran was eager to reach an agreement, had agreed that it would never possess nuclear weapons, and had offered a priceless gift involving oil, natural gas, and passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio were both involved, and the U.S. also revealed that it had submitted a 15-point peace proposal to Iran through Pakistan.
Trump's own summary was: "We have won this war."
What did Iran say?
Iran's response was a clean and decisive denial. Iran's semi-official news agency stated that no negotiations had taken place and that Trump was unreliable. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf went even further, calling it "fake news manipulating the oil market."
At the same time, the office of Iran's Supreme Leader appointed hardliner Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr as head of the National Security Council. This personnel arrangement at this juncture is completely contrary to the direction of "approaching reconciliation".
Iran's previous public conditions included demanding compensation from the US and a guarantee against future attacks. Trump's 15-point proposal has not yet been made public, but based on the public statements from both sides, it seems they cannot even reach a consensus on the most basic question of whether negotiations are underway.
