2022 wasn’t just a crash, it was a regime. Risk stayed elevated throughout the year, repeatedly spiking into high-risk zones, and each wave translated into new downside. The midterm year was relevant, but it was also the year major players broke down. Every time systemic risk resurfaced, the Risk Index destabilized and selling pressure intensified. Then FTX hit, the Risk Index re-triggered into high risk, and Bitcoin ultimately formed the macro bottom of the cycle. Throughout 2022, relief rallies appeared, but without sustained risk stabilization, they failed every time. High risk doesn’t just trigger declines, it sustains them.

SEM Economy & Markets
@swissblock_SEM
03-27
Midterm election years shape sentiment, but in practice they’ve also been liquidity stress tests.
2018: S&P500 -6%, BTC -73%
2022: S&P500 -19%, BTC -64%
2026 (YTD): S&P500 -4%, BTC -21%
Bitcoin consistently acts as the higher-beta expression of macro conditions.
It’s not just


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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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