It’s time to test our judgment—there’s no precedent for this in the past decade, no guide to follow! From what I’ve observed, in the last 10 years, BTC has never seen such strong support right at the “<10y Realized Price (purple line)”—which is close to the real average cost basis—during any bear market. That’s right, it’s never happened before! Even now, with the NASDAQ down -10%, BTC has managed to stay above the <10y RP ($64,000) for two months straight. But if you look closely, there are some key differences compared to the previous two cycles. Back in 2018 and 2022, before BTC broke below the purple line, the price faced a critical test: could it break above the STH-RP (red line, short-term holder realized price)? When the price failed to break out and the red line kept pushing down, BTC eventually dropped below the purple line. But in Feb-Mar 2026, STH-RP hasn’t put any real pressure on BTC’s price—there’s still a decent gap ($83,000) even today. So what comes next? There are only two possible scenarios: 1. BTC stays above the purple line, and when the red line catches up, it breaks out upwards, flipping the trend. 2. If the red line keeps dropping and brings more pressure, short-term holders start capitulating near their cost basis, and BTC finally breaks below the purple line. Version 1 = Bear market is over. Version 2 = We’re heading into deep bear territory, and there’s no quick exit. If you ask me which scenario is more likely, I personally lean towards the latter—even though emotionally, I wish it were the former! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

In fact, this means that there will be even more severe selling pressure after the break below.