As of March 31, the latest CVDD stands at $45,410, up just $506 from the last update on February 10 (see quote). The growth rate is extremely slow. In the CVDD algorithm, the numerator uses CDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed), which means that when BTC is spent, the time value held by the original investor is reset to zero. So, this sluggish rise indicates that early large holders have significantly reduced their on-chain activity, or are barely participating in transfers during this period. CVDD is one of the few metrics that has NEVER "failed" since BTC's inception—meaning BTC's price has always stayed above CVDD; bear market bottoms only ever get close, but have never broken below it. If this cycle continues to follow the same pattern, even if BTC sees a “final dip,” it shouldn’t go below $45,500. That’s a max potential drawdown of about -30% from current levels, but realistically, it’s probably much less. Looking at the current deviation between BTC price and CVDD (see the green arrow in the chart), similar levels of divergence have only happened three times in the past 15 years: 2015.2.5, 2018.11.27, and 2022.6.22. And on all three occasions, the price was already very close to the actual cycle bottom. If you’re not comfortable with a theoretical -30% max drawdown, or still think the risk/reward isn’t right, just wait. Or you could start DCA’ing into BTC now, or wait for a high-probability opportunity closer to CVDD. But this is not financial advice—just a reminder to plan ahead.

Unless there's a black swan event, I feel the base price of the BTC is probably around 5. I've been thinking about knock-offs lately, and I'm a little worried that they have no future.

BTC remains constant, while alt tokens come and go.

That's true, but the water flow will never stop, hahaha 😂