Chainfeeds Summary:
The four-year cycle may gradually weaken. BTC may move in tandem with US stocks to some extent. The concentration of VC coins in TGE may also decrease.
Article source:
https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/2039035517233410053
Article Author:
TVBee
Opinion:
TVBee: The core contradiction of this so-called altcoin season lies in the fact that while the total market capitalization is growing, most people are not feeling the effects. The key reason behind this is not a lack of capital inflow, but rather that the supply of Altcoin has ballooned to an extreme level, severely diluting the capital. In other words, the market isn't stagnant; rather, the increase is spread across tens of thousands of tokens, making it difficult for any single token to achieve a significant price increase. The essence of the problem can be attributed to the redundancy of VC tokens. So, why does this redundancy occur? The root cause lies in the liquidity mismatch between the primary and secondary markets. During the macroeconomic easing cycle of 2021-2022, a large amount of venture capital poured into the Web3 sector, with both the scale of financing and the number of projects reaching record highs, and the duration far exceeding previous cycles. This sustained surplus of funds resulted in a large amount of unreleased project supply accumulating in the primary market at that time. However, when these projects successively completed their TGEs and entered the secondary market around 2025, the macroeconomic environment had changed, overall market liquidity tightened, and new funds were clearly insufficient. This has created a structural mismatch: projects overheat during the fundraising stage but suffer from insufficient liquidity during circulation. Many VC coins face the same predicament after listing: a concentrated release of supply coupled with insufficient buying pressure, ultimately leading to generally weak price performance. This also explains why market sentiment remains low despite overall market capitalization growth. Despite the current poor performance of VC coins, this does not mean the VC model or Altcoin themselves will disappear. Looking at fundraising data, while the scale of VC investment and the number of projects in 2025 are significantly lower than the peak in 2021, they are still higher than the 2017-2018 cycle, indicating that the industry as a whole is still growing, just entering a more rational and cautious phase. On average, dozens of projects still receive funding each month, indicating that capital has not withdrawn but is reassessing risks and returns. Meanwhile, the fundamentals of Web3 itself remain solid. The current total value of blockchain (TVL) is still close to $100 billion, at a historically high level, indicating that on-chain financial activity remains active. More importantly, traditional financial and technology companies are continuously integrating into the Web3 ecosystem. For example, Google is deeply involved in multiple blockchain networks and provides infrastructure support, Microsoft is driving the development of decentralized identity networks, and NVIDIA is collaborating with decentralized computing power projects through its computing power platform to combine AI with blockchain. This cross-industry integration is constantly expanding the application boundaries of Web3. At the same time, a number of native projects are also providing services to the real world, such as supply chain traceability, AI training incentives, or cloud computing power support for enterprises. All of this demonstrates that Web3 is not just a speculative scenario, but is gradually evolving into an infrastructure layer. Continued VC investment means there is still funding to support technological innovation and product implementation; therefore, Altcoin and VC coins will not disappear, but will enter a more selective and differentiated phase. From a longer-term perspective, the crypto market is showing a trend towards becoming more like the US stock market, with the most important changes reflected in the evolution of exchanges and market structures. Leading platforms, such as Binance, are gradually strengthening the regulation of market makers' behavior, including restricting aggressive selling, standardizing liquidity provision, and monitoring abnormal transactions. This behavior is transforming exchanges from simple trading platforms into comprehensive market infrastructures similar to NASDAQ, simultaneously involved in issuance, trading, and regulation. The significance of this change lies in its potential to reduce market manipulation and improve overall market transparency and fairness. In the future, as more platforms follow similar measures, the entire crypto market's trading environment is likely to become more standardized. At the issuance level, due to more cautious VC investment and higher barriers to entry for traditional institutions and technology companies, the quality of new projects is expected to improve, potentially reducing large-scale, low-quality issuances. At the trading level, market-making activities are constrained, and the market will rely more heavily on genuine liquidity and fundamentals. At the information level, the KOL ecosystem will also change; with increased advertising supply and decreased demand, content creators with independent analytical capabilities will be more competitive. Overall, this trend towards a US stock market-like environment signifies that the crypto market is gradually transitioning from an early state of high volatility and low regulation to a more mature, rational structure that is more friendly to long-term investors.
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