Bank reserves have fallen below the $3 trillion mark again, potentially leading to liquidity tightness in April. As previously discussed, the dollar liquidity represented by bank reserves has been slowly rising since the end of February, from $2.96 trillion at the end of February to $3.01 trillion in early March, and then to $3.037 trillion in mid-March. Bank reserves are the most important component and variable of dollar liquidity (one can even simply look at the trend of bank reserves). The slow recovery in bank reserves will quickly be reflected in the BTC, which is most sensitive to changes in liquidity. However, US bank reserves have recently fallen below the $3 trillion mark again, and short-term liquidity has begun to tighten slightly. In fact, liquidity is unlikely to improve before late April. The logic is as follows: This previous long article about dollar liquidity | _2024111120230_ | The Treasury's Total General Account (TGA) balance was indeed around $850 billion at the end of March, meaning that the TGA balance is expected to increase by $2 trillion in the next three weeks, far exceeding the current $40 billion monthly short-term debt purchases by the Federal Reserve. The core reason is the arrival of tax season; the rise in TGA will likely interrupt the slow upward trend in bank reserve requirements from the end of February to March, causing them to begin to decline. With declining bank reserve requirements and tightening dollar liquidity, BTC, which is most sensitive to changes in liquidity, will naturally find it difficult to strengthen. Moreover, it may weaken further, requiring caution. In early February, we discussed expecting BTC to bottom out during the US stock market's "spring rally." x.com/qinbafrank/status/201959...…，有可能在真的在四月能看到了。 The previous opportunity can be seen in late April when the TGA account reached a high of $1.05 trillion. After that, the Treasury increased its spending, which means that fiscal spending increased and accelerated. At that time, bank reserves also bottomed out and rebounded, leading to a recovery in liquidity.