The appearance of this signal means that, starting from April 2, 2026, BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market! At least from the on-chain data perspective, we’re almost 100% confident about this. This kind of scenario is extremely rare. In the chart, the yellow line and orange line represent the average on-chain cost basis for BTC held 1-2 years and 1-3 months, respectively. Now, they’ve crossed. If you want to break down the logic behind this signal, you need to understand why the orange line drops during price declines, and why the yellow line rises. I previously posted a thread explaining why STH-RP doesn’t move with price action, which is fundamentally different from the 120d-EMA indicator on candlestick charts. If you’re interested, go check it out. Long story short, just know that this is a highly valuable and effective signal.