Is Trump about to act? First, according to a tweet from Lao Bai, a suspected insider has just placed a large bet ($800,000) on Polymarket, predicting a US ground invasion of Iran. Second, Trump has tended to act on Saturdays this year, likely to avoid impacting the US stock market. The US stock market is closed on Good Friday, April 3rd. Therefore, Friday through Sunday presents three relatively suitable days for action. Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM Thursday (9 AM Friday Beijing time). It's uncertain whether Trump will act within the 72 hours before his ultimatum. Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum with a deadline of 8 PM EST on April 6th, demanding that Iran: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, remove all mines, and cease charging tolls; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands from the US, including halting its nuclear program and handing over enriched uranium; and stop attacks on US companies. Trump threatened to launch a "power-off operation" if the two sides failed to reach an agreement by the deadline, bombing major power plants and power grid hubs in Iran, completely destroying Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export route, and attacking desalination plants and oil refineries. It's speculated that even without a ground invasion, these three days will likely be anything but peaceful.

Don't move, I'm scared.