A message to all my dear fans! — Are you ready for the second half of the bear market? This is a review, a summary, and also preparation for the next round. As a seasoned investor, I enjoy studying on-chain data and use it as a core reference for my trend and cycle trading. Behind on-chain data are people, encompassing complex expressions of "behavior" and "emotions," so it's not simply a matter of clinging to outdated methods; the idea that "it happened in the past, so it will happen now" is not the correct or reasonable way to use on-chain data. Only by understanding the principles and logic behind the data can we greatly increase the probability of making correct predictions. Of course, no one can be 100% correct in every judgment and bet. The important thing is whether you leave yourself room for error, whether you review and summarize in a timely manner, and whether you correct and adjust in time. During this cycle, I buy the dips at an average price of around 18,000 to 20,000 between December 2022 and March 2023. The analysis and judgment methods I used at that time were written into a post that is still pinned to the top of my X homepage (you can take a look if you are interested). Moreover, I also sold at the top of this round when the price was over 120,000. On October 6, 2025, I placed a conditional order at $121,000 based on the "MVRV extreme deviation pricing range," and took profit on all orders if the price fell below that level (see the link below). x.com/Murphychen888/status/197...… x.com/Murphychen888/status/197...… In addition, using this analytical framework, I accurately judged that the decline in July-August 2024 was not the start of a bear market, that the momentum weakened in December 2024 and that the bottom of the correction was reached after whales increased their holdings in March 2025 (all of which can be found in my tweets at the time). There are correct judgments, and of course, there are also wrong ones. After the 10/11 incident, in the judgment between "a phase of correction" and "the end of the bull market cycle," I mistakenly believed it was the former. This was because at the time, there was no data to verify the conclusion that the cycle had ended, except for simply labeling it as the "traditional four-year cycle theory." Perhaps my accurate timing in identifying the top gave me blind confidence. At the time, I expected a maximum drawdown of -30%, so I started buy the dips when BTC fell to 100,000+ and kept buying until it reached 80,000+, with an average cost of 90,000+. However, in hindsight, this trading decision was clearly overly optimistic, underestimating the impact of a large number of early profit-taking shares fleeing the market and the subsequent chain reaction. Fortunately, although I was blindly confident at the time, I didn't let it cloud my judgment. I didn't go all in when buy the dips, and I used a trapezoidal order book to lower my cost basis, leaving myself some room for error. At the same time, I also began to reflect, summarize, and adjust my thinking. Until January 10, 2026, I saw a signal on the "Comprehensive Cost Basic Model" that confirmed the start of a bear market cycle, just as I can now confirm that "the bear market has entered its second half". On January 12th, I shared this important observation with two friends in our "Three's Company" group, because they had also followed my lead and bought the buy the dips too early, resulting in losses. According to the signals at the time, BTC might rebound to around $98,000, which would be the last chance to escape. As you probably know, BTC rebounded to $97,000 on January 14th. Then, on January 16th, I wrote a tweet titled "Rebound Topped Out or Bull Market Begins?", in which I clearly stated my view in bold: this is the "high point of the rebound" (see the link below). x.com/Murphychen888/status/201...… This can be considered the last correct correction for all the followers who have been following my tweets before the end of this "bull market cycle." It is also a form of self-redemption for myself in trading. Recently, many friends have left me messages asking when I will "break the cup"? To be honest, I don't know if I can accurately pinpoint the bottom of the bear market through the following data analysis and judgment; I can't guarantee it. However, now that we have clearly stated that "the bear market has entered its second half," the simplest and most effective method is to persist with dollar-cost averaging over the next six months. This way, you will not miss this rare and excellent opportunity. Reaching the next peak, you're 99.99% guaranteed not to lose money; you just need to endure the boring and lengthy process, as well as the inevitable noise and price fluctuations along the way. Of course, I know that many of you have limited cash flow and limited funds. So you hope to buy near the bottom. I understand, and I hope so too! My current personal expectation is that there is at most a 10% to 20% retracement range from the current level, and the bottom structure will form in about 3 to 5 months. We need to observe data indicators such as on-chain sentiment, liquidity, whale behavior, supply and demand, cost base, as well as changes in the directional premium of futures and the funding structure of options, etc. Therefore, I will do my best to identify and seize it as accurately as possible! To help everyone gain a leading position before the next bull market begins. But please forgive me if it is not allowed. This was absolutely not my intention, please believe that I have done my best! Hopefully, everyone will be at the next peak! 🫶🫶🫶

Only through long-term tracking can one truly appreciate the brilliance of Brother M's analytical system.

Brother M's analysis is quite accurate 👍