The probability of Iran striking Azerbaijan in April rose to 21% within two hours. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "yes" for the question "Will Iran take military action against Azerbaijan in April?" rose from 12% to 21% within two hours. The main reason for the market's expectation of a possible Iranian strike against Azerbaijan stems from the complex bilateral relationship between the two countries and Azerbaijan's deep cooperation with Israel. Azerbaijan has long maintained extremely close military and intelligence ties with Israel, being a major energy supplier and buyer of advanced weapons. Iranian officials have repeatedly accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israeli intelligence agencies to use its territory as a base for reconnaissance and operations against Iran. Given the current escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, Iran may target potential Israeli intelligence facilities or related military assets within Azerbaijan as part of its strategic deterrence against Israel in the region. On the other hand, Iran is currently fully engaged in dealing with direct military pressure from the United States and Israel, and proactively opening a new front on its northern border at this time would be highly inconsistent with its military strategic interests. Azerbaijan and NATO member Turkey have signed the Shusha Declaration, which forms a kind of alliance. Using force against Azerbaijan would easily provoke Turkish military intervention. Meanwhile, Iran has a large Azerbaijani population, and a direct military strike against Azerbaijan could trigger serious social unrest within Iran. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN