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The top 50 addresses betting on Judy Shelton's election as Federal Reserve Chair exhibited abnormal trading behavior. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being nominated for the "Trump nomination" event surged to nearly 100% after Trump's post about his nomination. The White House also released information related to "Trump's nomination of Warsh," and the community repeatedly submitted "Yes" settlements, but these were ultimately rejected because no official congressional documents had yet surfaced to prove Warsh's nomination. On January 30th, after Judy Shelton posted a screenshot of the event on X, new addresses began placing large bets on her being elected Federal Reserve Chair. Her probability of winning rose from 0.1% at the time of posting to 4% at the time of writing. Among the top 50 addresses holding positions in this market, 42 accounts had bets exceeding their median open positions by tens of times or more, with 17 of them holding no other positions, totaling $113,000. Of the remaining 8 accounts, 5 had no unusual opening positions because they also had other positions of similar size betting against Warsh's election as Federal Reserve Chairman, totaling $58,000. Accounts: 0xa229ff58bdf32a763d5fc3b2a6323dd73b51cbf1 0x47b5d2d7eff10aecabc749ed41ccff97e9c9a045 0x6be8864913b5be44611706abc696cad0814808e4 0x0b03ea04dbc340f9c76ab8874c0121a45352787d Total Positions Opened: Over $200k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Five high-probability accounts bet $48.2k on another US government shutdown before the 14th On the prediction market Polymarket, five high-probability accounts bet $48.2k on another US government shutdown before the 14th in the past day, with an average opening price of approximately 71¢ and a current price of 74¢. Senate Democrats consider the White House's DHS (Department of Homeland Security)/ICE reform plan "incomplete and insufficient" and refuse to accept it; therefore, reaching an agreement before the funding deadline has become more difficult. The two parties are still deadlocked on the terms of ICE reform, but leadership still says an agreement is "possible"; while emphasizing that the DHS funding deadline is approaching, and the lack of an agreement will affect the operation of DHS-related agencies. Accounts: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f 0xee324b84546110f1fa5d4b2558edb179c3a4463a 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899 0xffc49504efd8126650580438d4b22b1e7316a9f2 Total Positions Opened: $48.2k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

An address that profited $4.5 million from the election has bet $125k that Starmer will step down before February 28th. On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past day, an address that bet on Trump's victory during the US election and profited $4.5 million has bet $125k that Starmer will step down before February 28th. The average opening price was 28¢, and the current price is 17¢. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is embroiled in a political crisis due to his appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, and faces pressure to resign from both within and outside his party. Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar has become the most vocal Labour figure to date, publicly urging Starmer to resign, stating that the current leadership is distracting the party and harming the election. Meanwhile, two key aides to Starmer, Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney and Communications Director Tim Allan, have resigned, raising questions about his leadership judgment and concerns about the stability of British politics. Account: 0x94a428cfa4f84b264e01f70d93d02bc96cb36356 Opening Position: $125k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

A new address placed a $3.2k bet that the US will attack Iran before February 28th. On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past day, a new address placed a $1.3k bet that the US will attack Iran before February 20th and a $1.9k bet that the US will attack Iran before February 28th, for a total open position of $3.2k. Affected by ongoing nationwide protests, the Iranian government has launched a larger-scale crackdown on domestic reformists, including the arrest of several prominent reformist figures. This internal political pressure, coupled with external diplomatic tensions, has further complicated the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the US this week, planning to discuss US-Iran nuclear negotiations and broader regional security issues with Trump, including Iranian ballistic missiles and support for proxy forces. Account: 0xf4e5684d2a62ed12e76df37c0c7c39d2394bf012 Opening Position: $3.2k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

An address with an 82% historical win rate in political betting has bet $7.5k that the Fed will cut rates in March. On the prediction market Polymarket, an address with an 82% historical win rate in political betting over the past day has bet $8k that the Fed will cut rates in March, with an average opening price of 15¢ and a current price of 16¢. US President Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as his candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, expected to succeed current Chairman Powell after his term expires. Warsh's stance is seen by some market analysts as favoring lower interest rates; both he and Trump have a history of advocating for rate cuts, leading the market to reassess the future interest rate path as potentially more "accommodative." However, analysts also point out that he may not push for rapid rate cuts, but rather act cautiously while maintaining independence. Account: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101 Opening Position: $7.5k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

An address with an 81% historical win rate on political betting odds has bet $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before February 14th. On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 8 hours, an address with an 81% historical win rate on political betting odds has bet $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before February 14th, with an average opening price of 69¢ and a current price of 70¢. With the temporary funding currently providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security expiring this Friday (after February 13th), significant differences remain between the two parties in Congress over budget details. Democrats have put forward several demands for reform of Immigration Enforcement (ICE), while Republicans oppose these provisions, and the two sides have not yet reached an agreement on a new funding deal. Failure to resolve this impasse could result in the failure to renew funding for DHS in a timely manner, triggering a new partial shutdown. Account: 0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2 Opening Position: $11.1k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

An account with only one historical trade bet $56k that the US will strike Iran today. On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 12 hours, an address with only one historical trade bet $56k at an average price of 2c that the US will strike Iran before February 9th. The current odds for this bet are 3%. The address's only historical trade was a bet that Trump will not win the 2024 election, resulting in a total loss of $75k. Most notably, after the loss, the account had a remaining balance of over $400k that it did not withdraw until today, when it placed another bet. On February 7th, the Iranian Foreign Minister publicly warned: "If the US attacks Iran, we will strike all US bases in the Middle East, and these bases will become legitimate targets." On February 8th, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated in an interview that Iran is "prepared to seriously negotiate a fair agreement," willing to discuss restrictions on its nuclear program, but refusing to completely halt uranium enrichment, and emphasizing that "negotiation is impossible under military threats." Reports indicate that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet in Washington on February 11 to discuss Iran's nuclear program and potential joint actions. Account: 0xb500375afa738dc548b850669096c5eb56a8719a Opening Position: $56k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

An address with an 82% success rate in political betting has placed a $58.3k bet on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before March 31st. On the prediction market Polymarket, an address with an 82% success rate in political betting and a profit of $110,000 over the past day has increased its bet on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. This address has placed a total of $58.3k bet on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before March 31st, with an average opening price of 79¢ and a current price of 93¢. In the second round of trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi, UAE, Russia and Ukraine, under US mediation, completed the exchange of 314 prisoners of war and unanimously expressed their willingness to continue dialogue. However, no substantial progress has been made on key issues. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister emphasized that the most sensitive differences in the current negotiations need to be resolved through a personal meeting between the two leaders and expressed hope to accelerate the negotiation process. The US may push for results within the framework of the previously envisioned "peace before June" in the coming weeks. Account: 0x0b219cf3d297991b58361dbebdbaa91e56b8deb6 Opening Position: $58.3k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Bitmine, dubbed the "Ethereum version of MicroStrategy," has a 73% probability of announcing an Ethereum purchase within three days. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Bitmine announcing an Ethereum purchase between February 3rd and 9th is 73%. Bitmine is replicating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserve strategy, leading the market to call it the "Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." The company has been actively accumulating ETH through equity financing, currently holding over 4.2 million coins, with a floating loss exceeding $6.6 billion. Bitmine CEO Tom Lee repeatedly mentioned last year that Ethereum would rise above $10,000 by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Fundstrat, the financial research company co-founded by Tom Lee, in its "2026 Crypto Outlook" (available only to paid subscribers), pointed out that the crypto market will experience a significant correction in the first half of this year, giving a target range of $60,000-$65,000 for BTC and $1,800-$2,000 for ETH. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

The delayed release of Claude 5 has caused a sharp drop in its release probability this month, with a new account betting $10,000 that the new model will be released before April. On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has bet $10.5,000 that Claude 5 will be released before March 31st, at a cost of 93 cents. Currently, the odds for this bet are 85%. Four days ago, a user posted that they found the identifier "claude-sonnet-5@20260203" in Google Vertex AI logs, which sparked speculation that Claude 5 would be released on February 3rd. Just yesterday, Claude released the update Claude Opus 4.6, which improved performance in various aspects, but did not release any information regarding the Claude 5 release. This caused the odds for a release before February 14th and 28th to plummet, with the probability of a release before February 28th dropping from 95% yesterday to 52% today. The community widely speculates that Claude 5 may be delayed until late Q1 or Q2 to refine proxy, multimodal, and security alignment. Account: 0xbb6f5414a957402a12180706f7dcc1ea551b56b7 Total Positions: $10.5k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

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