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The probability of Russia launching military action against Kyiv before April 3rd has increased more than eightfold in the past three hours. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "yes" for the question "Will Russia launch military action against Kyiv before April 3rd?" has risen from 7% to 59% in the past three hours. A few days ago, Ukraine proposed a temporary ceasefire during Orthodox Easter and called on both sides to cease attacks on energy infrastructure. However, the latest developments indicate that Russia has explicitly rejected this temporary ceasefire proposal. Looking back at the recent frequency of airstrikes, Kyiv itself has experienced relatively few attacks in the past month. Throughout March, Russia launched a record number of drone strikes, including nearly 400 sorties on March 24th targeting Dnipropetrov, Kharkiv, and Lviv. It's important to note that this event differs from the common definition of "strike" on the Polymarket platform: If Russian armed forces launch drones or missiles into the territory of Kyiv, even if these weapons are completely intercepted in mid-air by Ukrainian air defenses and cause no actual ground damage, the event will still be classified as "yes" as long as there is a clear official statement or consensus in the press confirming that the target was Kyiv. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

The probability of Iran striking Azerbaijan in April rose to 21% within two hours. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "yes" for the question "Will Iran take military action against Azerbaijan in April?" rose from 12% to 21% within two hours. The main reason for the market's expectation of a possible Iranian strike against Azerbaijan stems from the complex bilateral relationship between the two countries and Azerbaijan's deep cooperation with Israel. Azerbaijan has long maintained extremely close military and intelligence ties with Israel, being a major energy supplier and buyer of advanced weapons. Iranian officials have repeatedly accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israeli intelligence agencies to use its territory as a base for reconnaissance and operations against Iran. Given the current escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, Iran may target potential Israeli intelligence facilities or related military assets within Azerbaijan as part of its strategic deterrence against Israel in the region. On the other hand, Iran is currently fully engaged in dealing with direct military pressure from the United States and Israel, and proactively opening a new front on its northern border at this time would be highly inconsistent with its military strategic interests. Azerbaijan and NATO member Turkey have signed the Shusha Declaration, which forms a kind of alliance. Using force against Azerbaijan would easily provoke Turkish military intervention. Meanwhile, Iran has a large Azerbaijani population, and a direct military strike against Azerbaijan could trigger serious social unrest within Iran. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Three smart money accounts have invested $51,000, believing the US-Iran conflict will end by April. On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart money accounts have collectively invested $51,000, betting "yes" on the possibility that the conflict between Iran and Israel or the US will end by April. The current probability of "yes" is 26%. According to the market's rules, a settlement of "yes" does not require either side to formally declare a ceasefire or end military operations. The bet will close successfully if there are no defined "military actions" between Iran and the US or Israel for 14 consecutive days within the specified period. Under the US War Powers Resolution, the US president can only maintain a state of armed conflict overseas for a maximum of 60 days without formal congressional authorization. With this legal deadline approaching, the political and legal obstacles for the US to continue high-intensity direct strikes after April will significantly increase. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently stated publicly that the objectives of the military action against Iran have been "more than half" achieved. On April 1, a US-Israeli coalition launched a precision airstrike on Tehran, targeting the residence of Kamal Kharrazi, former Iranian Foreign Minister and advisor to the Supreme Leader. While Kharrazi survived with serious injuries, his wife was killed instantly. Reports indicate that Israel, at the request of Pakistan and others, removed some Iranian officials involved in negotiations, such as Kharrazi, from its strike list. Trump has publicly stated his desire for fruitful negotiations and threatened to escalate strikes if talks fail. There are also indications that the US wants to avoid targeting Iranian officials "seeking an exit strategy" to prevent jeopardizing potential peace talks. Note: Based on past trading history, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; rather, they have engaged in profit-taking and stop-loss orders at specific points in time after opening positions. Accounts: 0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e 0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 Total Investment: $51k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Three new accounts have invested $22.1k in TISZA, raising the likelihood of them winning the most seats in the Hungarian parliamentary elections. On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have invested $22.1k in the "Will TISZA win the most seats in the Hungarian parliamentary elections?" bet on "Yes," with a current probability of "Yes" at 70%. Fidesz is the ruling party of Hungary, long led by Viktor Orbán. Its political stance is nationalistic and conservative, emphasizing sovereignty and control, and anti-immigrant. It has long dominated Hungarian politics through strong mobilization and its advantage in rural constituencies. TISZA, on the other hand, is a rising opposition force led by Pieter Magyar, whose campaign has garnered widespread support from the European Union. Currently, Fidesz still holds a slight advantage among rural voters, but TISZA has begun to substantially erode its support base in rural and small towns, using ground mobilization, infrastructure promises, and candidate outreach to contest constituencies that have long belonged to Fidesz. This is more important than national polls in the Hungarian elections, as "winning the most seats" ultimately depends on the 106 individual constituencies. Accounts: 0x8f4e01a4aa296262e09b41447ef61f0cf964f455 0xf43dbc5ab1155d98b05401f567ca74a495a72192 0x4e2610830f3c67702093f87e0fb0e00c7fb44355 Total Investment: $22.1k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Two smart money accounts have invested $19.6k in a prediction that a Canadian province will hold a referendum on secession before 2027. On the prediction market Polymarket, two smart money accounts have invested $19.6k to bet on "whether any Canadian province will hold a referendum on secession before 2027" with a 77% probability of "yes". On March 31, the Alberta separatist organization "Stay Free Alberta" announced that its independence petition had collected over 177,732 signatures. This number meets the legal threshold for triggering a citizen-initiated provincial independence referendum. The organization has set October 19th as the target date for the referendum. Regarding the current legislative process and timeline, the organization must submit all signatures to the Alberta Electoral Commission for official verification by May 2nd. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith opposes separatism, but amid recent westward alienation fueled by federal energy policy, she welcomed a debate on the issue within the caucus. Smith had previously pledged to push for the issue to be included in a referendum once the number of signatures on the petition was officially verified. According to the market's settlement rules, if any Canadian provincial government formally schedules a referendum on the province's potential secession from Canada by December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the event is settled as "yes." This applies regardless of whether the referendum merely establishes the will to independence, sets out a framework for independence, or directly declares independence, and regardless of its legal binding force. Note: Based on past trading history, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; rather, they have engaged in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at certain points after opening a position. Account: 0x2b76c1d12cd928b1d95a6d2c7f1e6f6e7f14edef 0x7e31a5e9c31638483614e9fd9f945bb34692454d Total Investment: $19.6k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

A smart money account has invested $4.1k in a prediction that crude oil prices will reach $120 by July. On the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money account has invested $4.1k in a buy-"yes" prediction for "Will crude oil prices reach $120 by July?", with a current probability of "yes" at 66%. Prices for immediate delivery crude oil have risen to their highest level since 2008, with traders attributing the surge to market concerns about the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which could further disrupt Middle Eastern crude oil and refined product supplies. JPMorgan Chase states that if current supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue, crude oil could rise to $120-$130 per barrel in the short term; if the disruptions persist until mid-May, prices could even exceed $150. Account: 0xff165cf8eb75ee77933a7544d7cd600ccb2c7511 Total Investment: $4.1k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

A new account has invested $2.2k, believing the Claude Mythos model will be released before May. On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $2.2k, betting "Yes" on whether the Claude Mythos model will be released before May. The current probability of "Yes" is 32%. The data breach on March 26th first exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model. Anthropic subsequently confirmed the model's existence, stating it was currently in early access testing with a small group of early access customers. According to leaked internal documents, the model is Anthropic's most powerful large-scale language model to date, achieving a leap forward in reasoning, programming, and cybersecurity compared to Claude Opus. As of now, no specific release date has been announced. Some community discussions suggest that, under the competitive pressure of the ongoing upgrades to the OpenAI o1 series and xAI Grok, Anthropic might use the recent AI industry conference as a catalyst to suddenly announce its release plans and seize market consensus. However, leaked information indicates that Anthropic has privately warned government officials about the potential cybersecurity risks of the Mythos model. This level of security concern and compliance review creates significant uncertainty regarding the model's public release in the near future. Account: 0x2f53aeed631d5b41770149c9398ee561d3a49b9a Total Investment: $2.2k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

Five smart money accounts have invested a total of $138.9k in predictions that US troops will enter Iran before May. On the prediction market Polymarket, five smart money accounts have collectively invested $138.9k in the prediction that "Will US troops enter Iran before May?" with a 68% probability of this event occurring. Trump stated on social media that the US military "hasn't even started destroying what's left of Iran," specifically naming "bridges, then power facilities," and urging the Iranian leadership to make a decision "as soon as possible." The Iranian military responded strongly, stating that the war would continue until Iran's enemies "permanently regret and surrender." Iranian media subsequently named several bridges in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Jordan, listing these countries with US military bases as potential targets for retaliation. Accounts: 0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135 0x8ccedcdd40c9623a524c2e734879fc397b865c11 0x4e56f1ddaa8f5328036c449b89e731ec748cdee1 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 0x616d9ddd0d11b3e3fbd4a617d1320814ac19bf7d Total Investment: $138.9k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN

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