The probability of Russia launching military action against Kyiv before April 3rd has increased more than eightfold in the past three hours. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "yes" for the question "Will Russia launch military action against Kyiv before April 3rd?" has risen from 7% to 59% in the past three hours. A few days ago, Ukraine proposed a temporary ceasefire during Orthodox Easter and called on both sides to cease attacks on energy infrastructure. However, the latest developments indicate that Russia has explicitly rejected this temporary ceasefire proposal. Looking back at the recent frequency of airstrikes, Kyiv itself has experienced relatively few attacks in the past month. Throughout March, Russia launched a record number of drone strikes, including nearly 400 sorties on March 24th targeting Dnipropetrov, Kharkiv, and Lviv. It's important to note that this event differs from the common definition of "strike" on the Polymarket platform: If Russian armed forces launch drones or missiles into the territory of Kyiv, even if these weapons are completely intercepted in mid-air by Ukrainian air defenses and cause no actual ground damage, the event will still be classified as "yes" as long as there is a clear official statement or consensus in the press confirming that the target was Kyiv. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN