This @Polymarket market is pricing a long Iran conflict, not a quick resolution. While Trump says the war should be over in "two weeks, maybe three," the market is leaning the other way. Around 60% odds of US forces entering Iran by the end of April. Nearly 30% odds that this is still dragging on by year-end. These numbers point to a bigger story: escalation is becoming the base case.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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