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In Glassnode's latest weekly report, their views perfectly align with what I shared in my previous thread “A Balance Game Yet to Erupt” (see quote below). What’s interesting is that we come to the same conclusion from different perspectives: I approached it from the angle of “token distribution,” while the Glassnode team used options derivatives. Here’s the link to the original report: insights.glassnode.com/the-wee...… I know some folks in the Chinese community might find the English in the report a bit tough, so let me break it down: 🚩 Chart 1: Compares 1-week Implied Volatility (IV, green line) vs. 1-week Realized Volatility (RV, red line). Right now, IV is way above RV. This means options are expensive—traders are paying a hefty premium to hedge risk or bet on big moves, but in reality, BTC’s price action this week has been pretty muted. This IV/RV gap has lasted for three weeks now. So, while the market looks calm on the surface, traders are actually anxious underneath. This “paying up for protection” shows a lack of confidence in the current trend. 🚩 Chart 2: Shows Gamma Exposure (GEX); what we care about here are those red bars, which represent the negative gamma zones for market makers. When BTC price drops, market makers in negative gamma territory have to sell more BTC spot or futures to stay delta-neutral. Their hedging can amplify market volatility. Right now, negative gamma is mostly clustered in the $58,000–$66,000 range. Putting these two data points together: The BTC market is in a “fragile equilibrium” right now. With options overpriced and market makers deep in negative gamma, any bearish trigger that pushes price into those sensitive negative gamma zones could set off a powder keg. The suppressed volatility we’ve seen so far could get unleashed much faster—and more violently—than most expect. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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