A bet on an interest rate cut?! I checked the CME, and it shows no expectation of an interest rate cut this year, but rather an expectation of a rate hike, although the probability is extremely low. Of course, it's too early to say there will be a rate hike or a recession; everything is subject to change. Friday's non-farm payroll data was quite good, and the unemployment rate even decreased, indicating that the possibility of a recession in the US is still small. Middle East geopolitics continues. The US was preparing for a multi-week ground operation against Iraq, but it probably won't start by this weekend. Of course, it's hard to say what will happen later, especially over the weekend. Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market, and they are ongoing and may even escalate. Trump's predictions are impossible, but hopefully, we'll see a glimmer of hope for an end this month. Given the geopolitical influence, positive expectations such as interest rate cuts or an end to the war haven't materialized. Negative expectations, such as Trump's continued rhetoric and rising oil prices, are also not good for risk markets. Without major negative news, the market will likely remain volatile. Whether it's US stocks or BTC, navigating these fluctuations is acceptable. However, war-induced inflation necessitates a defensive and liquidity-management-focused approach for ordinary investors in the short term. In the medium term, the post-war outcome will determine returns on risky assets based on supply-side factors (oil prices) and monetary policy (interest rate path). US stocks have recently been fluctuating with a slight upward bias, offering opportunities to profit from these short-term swings. @MSX_CN allows for flexible allocation of US stock assets without the complicated account opening process. Those interested in learning about US stocks can browse the MSX Research Institute. My personal profile has an MSX referral code: x8VP18. Of course, ordinary investors should exercise caution when trading, as a large one-sided market trend is unlikely in the near future. This isn't investment advice; Trump's rhetoric is changing too rapidly.

Once the war is over, the expectation of interest rate hikes will disappear. For the next few months, things will likely remain inactive; let's wait for Walsh to take office and then hold a meeting. I estimate we'll see some direction in Q4.