DC大于C

DC大于C

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18年进Crypto 从业者，个人投资心得 #Bitcoin 10万见；均不是投资建议

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A bet on an interest rate cut?! I checked the CME, and it shows no expectation of an interest rate cut this year, but rather an expectation of a rate hike, although the probability is extremely low. Of course, it's too early to say there will be a rate hike or a recession; everything is subject to change. Friday's non-farm payroll data was quite good, and the unemployment rate even decreased, indicating that the possibility of a recession in the US is still small. Middle East geopolitics continues. The US was preparing for a multi-week ground operation against Iraq, but it probably won't start by this weekend. Of course, it's hard to say what will happen later, especially over the weekend. Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market, and they are ongoing and may even escalate. Trump's predictions are impossible, but hopefully, we'll see a glimmer of hope for an end this month. Given the geopolitical influence, positive expectations such as interest rate cuts or an end to the war haven't materialized. Negative expectations, such as Trump's continued rhetoric and rising oil prices, are also not good for risk markets. Without major negative news, the market will likely remain volatile. Whether it's US stocks or BTC, navigating these fluctuations is acceptable. However, war-induced inflation necessitates a defensive and liquidity-management-focused approach for ordinary investors in the short term. In the medium term, the post-war recovery will depend on supply-side factors (oil prices) and monetary policy (interest rate path) to determine returns on risky assets. US stocks have recently been fluctuating with a slight upward bias, offering opportunities to profit from these short-term swings. @MSX_CN offers flexible US stock asset allocation without the complicated account opening process. Those interested in learning about US stocks can browse the MSX Research Institute. My personal profile has an MSX referral code: x8VP18. Of course, ordinary investors should exercise caution when trading, as a large one-sided market trend is unlikely in the near future. This isn't investment advice; Trump's rhetoric is changing too rapidly. twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2040...

Yesterday morning, while rushing to catch my train, I saw the news and closed my short position, then opened a long position in SOL. My logic was that on Monday, Trump's taco led to a drop in oil prices, which in turn caused US stocks to rise, indicating Trump was still concerned. I believed the sentiment had reversed and could maintain this for a few days during the work week. That's exactly what I wanted to profit from, so I held my long position. However, yesterday I felt something was off; BTC couldn't break above 68 and hold, but I still planned to hold at least until the second half of the week. Now, I've experienced a rollercoaster ride. From yesterday to today, whenever oil prices approached $105 or higher, Trump would make a verbal taco gesture, causing oil prices to drop and risk markets to rise slightly. However, the market seems to understand Trump's rhetoric, and volatility has decreased. This is especially true for US stocks; the S&P 500 is indeed slightly up in pre-market trading, perhaps out of fear of a larger move later, given Trump's previous talk of deploying troops, which hasn't happened yet. It seems he's using this to buy time for a larger operation. And today is Tuesday; US stocks won't be open on Friday. Time is running out for Trump and us. I'll keep checking; if my long position gives me a chance to break even or make a profit, I'll close it immediately. Otherwise, if Trump really does something reckless on Friday, the 24/7 BTC might be in trouble. And then next Monday Trump might be making tacos again... oh my god. twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2038...

It's the weekend, and I'm still holding my short position on #SOL. I was just waiting for these last few days. I didn't expect Trump to start on Friday. The US and Israel bombed an Iranian steel plant and its associated power plant, and Iran threatened reciprocal retaliation. With the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea potentially affected, oil prices have surged above $100. Trump, do you even know what you're doing? Your midterm elections are just around the corner! Aren't you worried? Even though the market fell quite a bit by Friday's close, I'm still holding short positions in SOL, afraid you'll cause trouble again over the weekend. The logic is simple. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with Trump's actions, are impacting oil prices. Rising oil prices put pressure on interest rate cuts and may even lead to expectations of rate hikes, similar to the current situation. This is detrimental to both US stocks and Bitcoin (BTC). Solvay (SOL) is closely following BTC's price action. I chose Solvay because of its greater volatility; if the direction is correct, I can potentially profit more. Therefore, in the short term, we'll be watching whether Trump will cause any trouble from Sunday to Monday daytime to affect the market. If Trump continues his actions, and oil prices show no signs of falling at the opening of futures and oil markets on Monday, and stock index futures also look unfavorable, then BTC's support level may need to move lower, and we might even have to consider whether it will fall below 6. Of course, it's currently still above 60-63, so the main concern is the low liquidity over the weekend and Trump's subsequent actions. This is also the logic behind my continued holding of short positions in SOL. Let's wait and see. The downward trend on the daily chart has not yet stopped. Of course, we also need to see if Trump will release any more smokescreens, just like last Monday evening around 7 pm, when a single statement from Trump immediately caused oil prices to plummet and risk markets to rebound. In that case, the direction would change. Traders would then need to quickly adjust their logic and execute their operations accordingly. Finally, let's see how things long at lower levels during a downward trend. Why? I'm afraid of causing further panic. That's it. Trump, please don't do anything reckless. twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2037...

The market was sluggish over the weekend, with ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and persistently high oil prices. It's uncertain what unexpected events might occur over the weekend; market sentiment is extremely panicked. Hopefully, this will end before the end of the month. My #USD1 investment program is also counting down. There are only 6 days left until the deadline. I wonder if it will be renewed. We'll have to wait and see what the official actions are. USD1's real-time on-chain proof of reserves allows users to verify its total supply, reserve assets, and collateral ratio at any time. It has a 100.00% collateral ratio, and the Chainlink Oracle automatically updates and checks this every minute. As holders, this transparency and real-time monitoring is reassuring for ordinary users. Furthermore, USD1 continues to expand into new practical applications. MyriadMarkets is the first prediction track powered by USD1. It's truly remarkable how the USD1 ecosystem is constantly growing. As an ordinary user in a bear market, I hope it can be renewed! Haha.

If US stock index futures open poorly tomorrow morning, and Asian and European sentiment shows some panic, BTC will follow suit and fall. In the evening, the panic intensifies, and then the main event occurs: Trump says we've reached some kind of peace agreement, and the Straits will soon be open to navigation... Immediately, sentiment will reverse, US stocks will rebound, and BTC will follow suit. Then, various rumors will emerge about shady dealings and buying at low prices. Sentiment returns to normal, and we'll continue to watch subsequent macroeconomic and monetary policies... How's this scenario? Because in the past year or two, I've really enjoyed this pattern of US stock market opening on Sundays and Mondays. 😂

下周如果原油涨上$100，甚至$120 1.通胀复燃，美联储降息推迟 2.美股利空科技股，利好能源股 3.比特币挖矿成本增加，利空

Recommended reading. Brother Wu is very professional. This article covers dollar liquidity, US stocks, market trends, and even the potential future of crypto altcoins. I'll also offer my humble opinion. Let's start with liquidity. Although we're currently in a period of paused interest rate cuts, we can expect things to improve once Warsh comes to power. In terms of the macro cycle, we're actually still in the late 2019/early 2020 phase. Back then, the pandemic triggered a recession, leading to Fed QE. Now, regardless of the circumstances, easing is only a matter of time. The second half of the year is something to look forward to. Furthermore, there's the midterm election in Q4 this year. When interest rate cuts continue and liquidity eases, it's something to look forward to in risk markets (US stocks + BTC). US stocks are a simple model; just focus on tech stocks and macro liquidity. You'll find they are heavily influenced by monetary policy. Since the end of the first phase of aggressive interest rate hikes in early 2023, top-ranked US stock companies have seen a significant upward trend, continuing to this day. See the chart below. Actually, Brother Wu is right. The Nasdaq and NYSE together have over 5,500 companies with a combined market capitalization of $87 trillion. Ten of these companies have a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion: the "Seven Sisters" (referring to the Nasdaq's seven largest cryptocurrency exchanges), TSMC, Broadcom, and others. Companies ranked 11th to 35th all have market capitalizations exceeding $300 billion. The top 35 companies alone account for over $30 trillion, representing a third of the total market capitalization. The remaining 5,400+ companies share the rest. I wonder if this pattern will play out in the crypto market. In other words, the strong will continue to be strong, while the weak... Basically, from 2017 to now, very few companies have survived multiple cycles and are still thriving. I've discussed crypto innovation and its practical application with Wu many times. Currently, the total market capitalization of crypto is only $2.37 trillion. BTC and ETH combined account for nearly $1.6 trillion. The rest share less than $0.8 trillion. If more new assets emerge in the future, and liquidity becomes more abundant, even new issuance methods may be developed. The golden age of crypto may last longer than we imagine. In any case, the crypto market is a global market. twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2029...

This is incredibly direct. The keywords are so explicit, it's very likely SpaceX. And MSX is about to launch on the Pre-IPO market. That means ordinary users can participate too! They've also partnered with a compliant US private equity firm and the asset tokenization arm, Republic. Rumors in the community suggest the app is coming soon too. This is another big project, a very big one. I'm curious about the specific conditions and whether KYC is required. And the initial unicorn subscription quota will exceed ten million US dollars. This is bound to attract market attention. Eligible users will be able to get tokens in advance, which seems pretty good. I guess the specific conditions will only be known after the official launch. I'll keep an eye on it for now. I'm also concerned about the launch date. It would be perfect if it were announced when US stocks and #BTC sentiment were both good. We'll wait and see. By the way, although Nvidia dipped yesterday, it's more likely to fluctuate. For US stocks, you can directly participate in trading on the on-chain US stock platform @MSX_CN http:/msx.com/?code=x8VP18 Trump's choice to stir things up over the weekend shows that he still cares about the risk market. Let's wait and see how the US stock market opens on Monday! This article is sponsored by @MSX_CN twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2027...

Bitcoin was rising yesterday, breaking through to near the 7 mark, and sure enough, Nvidia's earnings report this morning provided further support for the risk market. It seems some investors anticipated Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings yesterday, hence the initial rise in AI technology stocks. Nvidia's Q4 revenue reached $68.1 billion, far exceeding the expected $65.91 billion. Both data center revenue and total revenue exceeded expectations; gross margin continued to improve as production of the new Blackwell architecture chips ramped up, indicating that Nvidia's products and pricing remain competitive. Moreover, excluding some revenue from the East China market, the guidance for this quarter is even stronger, further reinforcing the narrative of resilient AI computing power demand. It rose nearly 200 points in after-hours trading. Although the median Q1 revenue guidance was 4% higher than the most optimistic buy-side forecast, approaching $78 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 77%, and excluding East China data center computing revenue... During the conference call, Huang (Nvidia CEO) stated that computing demand was surging and agent applications were soaring, exceeding the previously set $500 billion chip revenue target. However, the stock price gave back some gains before and after the call and has now turned negative, possibly because investors were not swayed by the latest guidance. There are still concerns about the market overheating the AI economy. Perhaps the earnings expectations have already been priced in by the market, but we should have something to look forward to when US tech stocks open tonight, after all, the CEO's better-than-expected earnings should improve sentiment in US stocks and BTC. Nothing unexpected happened. If tech stocks surge tonight, it could also boost [the market]. $BTC Wow, US stocks are more resilient because of earnings reports and cash flow. For US stocks, the on-chain US stock platform @MSX_CN allows direct participation in Nvidia token trading http:/msx.com/?code=x8VP18 enabling more efficient circulation of high-quality assets. Let's see how the US stock market opens tonight. This article is sponsored by @MSX_CN twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2026...

As mentioned yesterday, Trump's tariff readjustment over the weekend, coupled with the geopolitical impact between the US and Iran, necessitated attention on the opening of US stock index futures on Monday. As it turned out, futures fell slightly by about 0.6% this morning. Poor sentiment hit #Bitcoin, with the Fear & Greed Index already at an all-time low, indicating extreme panic. This caused altcoins to also plummet. This is unavoidable. When crypto is consolidating and liquidity is low, even short-term fluctuations in the macro market negatively impact US stocks, causing crypto to follow suit and fall, unable to remain unaffected. Many are surely asking where the bottom is and when sentiment will improve. Personally, I think we might need to wait for expectations of interest rate cuts or changes in crypto legislation. These can all affect liquidity. There won't be an interest rate cut in March, so we'll have to wait until at least March. Therefore, this period is a time of uncertainty, as even the slightest macroeconomic development can negatively impact crypto sentiment. Therefore, I can't predict whether it will break 6 or 5, or where BTC will ultimately fall; we can only continue to wait. As long as US stock market sentiment remains stable. Even if cryptocurrencies don't rise in tandem, they should at least maintain a range-bound movement. Therefore, the market sentiment at the opening of the US stock market tonight will be crucial. Continuing to observe. Just waiting. twitter.com/DL_W59/status/2025...

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