If Trump's threat to seize ships is actually implemented, it would be equivalent to imposing a double "security tax," "seigniorage," and "energy tax" on oil tankers that have finally managed to get through after paying Iran. In other words, challenging the dignity of American hegemony will incur a price, a kind of "passage fee." (It's even possible that Trump could actually have the US Navy collect this fee 🤣, but that's a story for another time.) The Revolutionary Guard previously established a five-tiered "friendliness" ranking system for nationalities, with lower fees for more friendly countries. China, which purchases 80% of Iran's oil, already settles accounts in RMB. Pakistan received special treatment due to its mediating role. Iran allowed 20 Pakistani ships to pass through the strait, and Pakistan even began contacting international commodity traders to inquire if they would be willing to temporarily fly under the Pakistani flag. This has become a quota-selling business. If Trump were to intercept all ships that have paid Iranian passage fees on the high seas, the Gulf oil-producing countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar) would be most affected. Next would be China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. Even if construction on the pipeline started immediately, it would still take at least two years. Therefore, the response to this policy is either for the country of the passing ships to step in and, instead of paying a toll, secretly transfer funds to Iran under the guise of national reconstruction aid or some other pretext to secure security and circumvent Trump's policy; or for both sides to pay simultaneously, which would be more costly; or for Iran to back down; or for Trump to TACO; or for everyone to unite and eliminate either Iran or the United States. So the most likely outcome is that all parties reach a "face-saving agreement": the Strait is declared open, the toll is renamed a "security coordination service fee" or "navigation maintenance fund," the US turns a blind eye and doesn't intercept ships in international waters, Iran receives the money but doesn't call it a "toll," and Trump posts that he has won. One victory, everyone's happy.

This is the issue I mentioned to you last time—with Trump's personality, he's definitely going to take it to this point.