Just as I estimated yesterday, when BTC bounced back to $76,000 last night, BRS dropped to zero again. Although it has moved away a bit now (around 5), this confirms one thing: as long as BTC is above $76,000, BRS will always return to zero. 👉 When BRS=0, it means two things: 1. During bull-to-bear transitions, it marks a local top zone. 2. During bear-to-bull transitions, it signals the start of a trending move. For example, when BTC rebounded to $97,000 on Jan 14 and BRS hit zero, we identified that as a bull-to-bear phase—so that was the local top. So things get simple: you only need to figure out whether we’re currently in a “bear-to-bull” phase. If we are, then a strong trending rally is ahead. If not, then $76,000 or above is likely the local top for this move. The higher we go, the heavier the resistance and the greater the pullback risk. ---------------------------------- 🚩 Above is the data-driven analysis and interpretation. Here’s my personal take (for reference only): Personally, based on the current data, I think the odds favor the latter: we’re already in a local top zone. From what I’ve seen, this rally is closely tied to macro events, negative funding rates in futures, and options gamma squeezes. Spot demand, however, hasn’t picked up in sync. Two key data points haven’t changed much during the rally: 1. Momentum buyers haven’t been aggressively stepping in, which means overall sentiment is still cautious and lacks sustained follow-through. 2. The number of new active addresses (addresses interacting with BTC for the first time in 30 days with a non-zero balance) isn’t trending up either. There’s one potential game-changer: if BTC can break above $81,000 and retest without losing that level, then I’d lean towards the former (trend reversal) scenario. $81k is the average cost basis for short-term holders—when these chips are near break-even, it usually triggers sell pressure. If price breaks through, it signals confidence is back, and the whole game changes. For now, though, I subjectively see that as a low-probability outcome.