This wave of market activity is actually not far from the "harvest time".
Structurally, this round of Bitcoin's rebound will most likely encounter strong resistance around 78,000, which is both a previous area of concentrated cost and a profit-taking target for most bullish investors. Once this level is reached, it is likely to trigger a concentrated sell-off, and the probability of the market weakening is not small.
The market's recent rhythm has been very clear—completely driven by news. Especially with the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, any slight development causes immediate price fluctuations. This morning, news of renewed negotiations immediately boosted the price of cryptocurrencies. In this environment, it's difficult for retail investors to predict the market; they can only adjust their strategies accordingly rather than stubbornly sticking to a particular direction.
If the price were still around 70,000, it would be a long on dips. However, now that it's reached 75,000 and approaching a strong resistance zone, the cost-effectiveness has significantly decreased. Buying at this level carries a very high risk of being trapped at a high price. Therefore, it's better to wait and see than to take the risk.
Another key point is "expectation realization." The current price has already priced in the ceasefire's positive impact. If the subsequent news actually materializes, there's a possibility of the positive news being fully priced in, leading to a surge followed by a decline. Especially if the price falls instead of rising after the news is released, be wary of a market reversal, and even consider looking for short opportunities.
Yesterday's strategy followed the pattern of a minor top: observe the area around 78,000 in batches for signs of weakening before considering short positions. If the pullback successfully materializes, the first target will likely be back to the lower edge of the trading range around 69,000; if it breaks below this level, the downside potential could be further expanded.
Yesterday, both BTC and ETH surged and then retreated, with the daily chart showing a long upper shadow on high volume, indicating significant selling pressure above and confirming the failure of the short-term breakout. This also essentially confirms that this round of rebound has encountered a phase of resistance. After the weakening of mainstream assets, the altcoin sector quickly came under pressure, shifting from passive recovery to a collective decline, returning to the pattern of "mainstream strong, altcoin weak." It can be seen that altcoins do not have independent trends, but rather merely follow the rhythm of mainstream assets. Once the core assets shift, funds immediately withdraw, and the selling pressure is released faster and more intensely.
Specifically, $TAO has formed a typical Double Top pattern and broken below the neckline, indicating a shift to a bearish trend. As long as the price fails to regain its footing above the neckline, the overall bias remains towards further declines. Any subsequent rebounds to the vicinity of the neckline would likely present new short opportunities.
Looking at market sentiment, highly controlled tokens like "Binance Life" have extremely high on-chain concentration, meaning even slight fluctuations could trigger massive liquidations. The forced liquidation of a $20 million long position in the early morning also indicates sufficient market depth, with funds poised to exploit the situation. Coupled with news-driven disruptions, such as statements or live streams from key figures, this often leads to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, requiring vigilance.
$RENDER is currently at a crucial level, with the price oscillating repeatedly around the 200-day moving average (around $2.10). This moving average has repeatedly acted as resistance this year. Only if it can break above and hold above this level with significant volume will it truly open up upward potential; otherwise, it can only be considered range-bound trading. The current structure resembles a consolidation process; the price is no longer falling significantly, but it hasn't broken through either, indicating that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed. Once a surge in volume occurs, the directional choice will be more decisive.
Overall, the market has re-entered a phase of strategic maneuvering, with mainstream stocks dictating the pace and altcoins following the fluctuations. The current position is more of a "risk zone" than a comfortable entry point. Having already capitalized on the previous low-level rebound, this phase is more suitable for controlling the pace, observing more and acting less. It's not too late to act once the direction becomes clearer.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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