Is this time "different," or is it "the same"? The True Market Average Price (TMMP) is a cost mean reversion model that includes all active on-chain tokens; such as ETF trading, OTC transactions, exchange transfers, etc., but excludes tokens held by miners, long-term dormant tokens, or lost tokens. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is the average on-chain turnover cost of all short-term tokens. Many analysts consider it the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Although STH-RP and TMMP measure different dimensions, both are sensitive to a large amount of tokens. As important psychological barriers, they often represent the strongest resistance levels during price rebounds. If STH-RP and TMMP overlap, the resistance will inevitably double. After all, in a bear market, allowing a large number of tokens to recover from losses will generate significant selling pressure. Therefore, over the past 13 years, whenever the red and green lines intersect, BTC has made the same choice—to continue its downward trend. Currently, TMMP = $78,000; STH-RP = $80,000; the BTC price is approaching this level, and the red and green lines are about to converge. So, is this time "different"? Or is this time "the same"? We'll wait and see! ------------------------------------ I think you'll often encounter authors ending in this way. Because an open-ended conclusion is the least likely form of expression. If you don't want to be criticized, misunderstood, or argued with, ending here is the wisest approach. However, fans will definitely be very unhappy; a long essay ending without a conclusion or viewpoint is just nonsense! So, if you're sure you want to consider my personal subjective opinion and have the patience to listen to me continue, then let's continue... (The sequel will be updated this afternoon)