Original article by Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )
The Meme coin craze is gradually fading, and what's coming in its place is a prediction market trading boom.
In March of this year, prediction market trading volume increased by over 10% year-on-year, exceeding $25.7 billion. Besides geopolitical betting driven by the US-Iran situation, sports events like the NCAA and cryptocurrency price fluctuations also contributed significantly to this sector. Meanwhile, Polymarket's open CLI, Skills, and AI Agent payment applications and APIs have greatly facilitated AI Agent operations in prediction market trading. Thanks to Polymarket's currently open front-end interface, the recently updated V2 API, and various profit rankings, the next hot startup sector in the market may well be prediction market AI copy trading bots.
Odaily Odaily reminds users that the following content is for sharing of opinions only and does not constitute investment advice or endorsement. Please be aware of the risks of using the tools or the risk of losing principal when following their trades.
Why do we need AI-powered copy trading bots to predict market movements?
From a profitability perspective, according to research data from the previous paper "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of Polymarket's 1.72 Million Addresses are 'Real Winners'," as of December last year, over 32% of Polymarket's 1.72 million addresses were profitable. In April of this year, a survey by the prediction market data platform Parity showed that while Polymarket's user base had increased to 2.43 million, the proportion of profitable users remained as high as 31%, including:
- Accounts with profits exceeding $1 million accounted for 0.0043%, or 104 individuals.
- Accounts with profits between $100,000 and $1 million accounted for 0.05%, or 1,165 individuals.
- Accounts with profits between $10,000 and $100,000 accounted for 0.4%, or 9,654 people.
- Accounts with profits between $1,000 and $10,000 accounted for 2.23%, or 54,127 accounts.
- Accounts with profits ranging from $100 to $1,000 accounted for 5.24%, or 127,342 individuals.
- Accounts with profits ranging from $0 to $100 accounted for 23.09%, totaling 561,422 people.
According to Polymarket's official rankings, user Theo4 tops the all-time earnings list with $22.05 million in profits. Previously, he had wagered $8.5 million in the 2024 election, earning over $13.7 million.
It's clear that although the wealth-creating effect isn't as terrifying as the Meme coin of the past, the prediction market is indeed a path to making money.
As the research conclusion of the article "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of Polymarket's 1.72 Million Addresses Are 'Real Winners'" states, there are approximately 3.14% of "skilled winners" in prediction markets. These winners rely on their professional skills, news acumen, and other abilities to repeatedly select the final factual outcome in betting events, thus gaining direct cognitive rewards.
Fengdubiying, whom we interviewed earlier and who is known as "Polymarket's No. 1 in the Chinese region" and achieved a return of over 220 times in 25 days, once said, "Polymarket does not restrict copy trading, and you can clearly see the ultimate winners and top holders in betting events."
Moreover, unlike prediction markets like Polymarket and Meme coin, which emphasize "fast copy trading and stylish selling," betting on copy trading doesn't require considering whether you'll become a whale or a "liquidity exit" for the leader. Everyone is betting on accurately predicting the outcome of the event, and the counterparty is not the event initiator or prediction market platform, but the "opponent holding Yes/No tokens" who have a different understanding.
Of course, unlike the risks of Meme coin's Dev running away with the money and dumping, the risks of copy trading in the prediction market also exist objectively. A game, an event, or a political election may be full of probability fluctuations, and there is a greater chance of unexpected elimination, event reversal, and dark horse emergence. A large number of profits and a high win rate do not mean that every copy trade is a sure win.
What is the core competitiveness of AI-powered copy trading bots for market prediction?
Having discussed the potential and market demand for AI-powered copy trading bots in market prediction, the next step is naturally to discuss the specific functions of the tools and the criteria for judging their merits.
In my opinion, the core functionalities of a market prediction AI copy trading bot lie in the following three aspects:
Firstly, there is a sufficient number of "high-win-rate addresses." Aside from profit rankings for different time periods (monthly, weekly, etc.) and different sectors (politics, sports, esports, etc.), there isn't much difference between prediction market AI copy bots and Meme coin copy bots. The key is still a group of prediction market addresses or professional players with high win rates that can be cross-verified. The saying "If you don't have the talent, you have to know how to follow" presupposes that there are worthwhile people to follow. In this regard, data screening is paramount, and accurately and reliably labeling high-win-rate players is essential.
Secondly, there is the rapid follow-up strategy. Whether it's a high-win-rate player buying at the buy the dips, or a high-win-rate player selling in a timely manner or waiting for the outcome of an event, there are still cost differences in copy trading in the market prediction, so the speed of copy trading is also a core function of the tool; however, the market prediction AI copy trading bot can also formulate different selling strategies for users to choose from.
Thirdly, efficient event selection is crucial. Just like finding the "large MC memecoin" in the complex Meme coin market, a key skill in prediction markets is the ability to sift through a multitude of betting events to identify those with short timeframes, reasonable odds, and sufficient liquidity. This is a necessary function for copy trading tools. Of course, filtering based on total betting amount, high-win-rate player tags, and settlement rule explanations would be even better.
A brief overview of existing copy trading products in the forecasting market: Polybot, Kreo, Chance
Polybot: An automated betting tool built for airdrops
Official account: https://x.com/TradePolyBot
The tool's main concept is "serving the interaction of Polymarket token POLY airdrops," and users can use this bot to set up automatic trading, achieving the effect of "configuring arbitrage strategies in one minute and running automatically 24/7."
Official promotional image
Kreo: A copy trading tool developed by an individual developer.
Official account: https://x.com/kreoapp
Developed by wuli , a former Xiaomi engineer and independent developer, this tool emphasizes speed and functionality. According to the latest tweet from the official account, the latest version includes the following features: a copy trading task manager; customized profit and loss sharing materials in video and image formats; batch editing of copy trading tasks; real-time display of encrypted price fluctuations; prevention of duplicate copy trading; automatic filtering of sports betting events; and viewing the top 50 bettors on encrypted price fluctuations. According to the official bot interface, the tool currently has over 13,000 users.
Official Bot Page
Chance: Prediction Market Aggregator
Official account: https://x.com/Chance_
The platform's main advantage lies in its aggregation of multiple prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun, and it also offers some smart money and calendar analysis capabilities. It's worth noting that the platform is currently in early testing and may contain bugs or other risks. Odaily Odaily reminds users to use it with caution, avoid investing excessive funds, and be aware of security risks.
Official website trading tools page
Official website
Conclusion: Regardless of bull or bear markets, shovel sellers will always make money.
Once upon a time, during the Memecoin craze sparked by pump.fun, copy trading bots like gmgn.ai, abot, and Axiom made a fortune. Now, against the backdrop of a "big year" for prediction markets, copy trading bots may experience a surge during popular sporting events and political occasions such as the World Cup. Projects seeking media promotion or business cooperation are welcome to contact Odaily Odaily. Let's work together to contribute to the development of the crypto world.
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