Source: Coinbase
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode jointly released their Q2 2026 "Charting Crypto" report, which states that the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in Q2 2026 is neutral due to the ongoing and highly uncertain geopolitical landscape.
PANews has compiled the key points of the report, and the following are the details.
The current geopolitical landscape remains highly uncertain, making it difficult to make informed short-term investment decisions. Therefore, the report argues that a risk-reward balance strategy is advisable in the current environment. Financial markets are primarily driven by macroeconomic events and the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, a situation that is rapidly evolving. While the ultimate impact of the conflict on the global economy remains unclear, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.1%, assuming that "the duration and scope of the conflict remain limited." However, Oxford Economics estimates that the severity of oil supply disruptions could slow global GDP growth to 1.4% by 2026, as "the US and most major advanced economies will fall into recession."
The crypto market still faces some important unique factors, such as regulatory developments and the rise of AI. However, these factors are far less significant than the broader uncertainties that make the market unpredictable. The report is cautiously optimistic that the macroeconomic situation has turned positive, potentially helping many crypto assets bottom out in the short term and recover later this quarter. Indeed, technical indicators for both cryptocurrency and stock markets have generally turned positive, but this still hinges on whether an agreement can be reached with Iran.
Beyond geopolitics, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently convened a group of finance ministers and central bank governors at its Spring Meetings to discuss the potential systemic risks posed by Anthropic's newly launched Mythos AI model. The report argues that the model's ability to exploit security vulnerabilities could have implications for future markets.
At the same time, the report identifies two endogenous factors in the cryptography field that warrant attention in the short to medium term. The first is progress on the Claritism Act, and the second is advancements in post-quantum cryptography.
It's worth noting that the report points out that a complete end to the Middle East conflict, coupled with a decline in oil prices and easing inflation, could help strengthen risk assets overall. Positive developments in regulatory issues could also stimulate enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if the conflict escalates and oil prices rise further, it could dampen investor confidence and hinder global economic growth, as the risk of a global recession would increase.
Global Investor Survey
Between March 16 and April 7, 2026, a survey was conducted among 91 global investors (29 institutional investors and 62 non-institutional investors) to understand their views on cryptocurrency market trends, industry positioning, risk management, and other aspects.
The survey shows that by the end of the first quarter, investors' views had clearly shifted to a bearish outlook, suggesting the market was nearing the end of a cycle. Currently, approximately 82% of institutional investors and 70% of non-institutional investors believe the market is in a bear market (declining) or late in a bear market, up from 31% and 36% respectively in December 2025.
However, investors still believe Bitcoin is significantly undervalued. Three-quarters of institutional investors (75%) and about three-fifths of non-institutional investors (61%) believe Bitcoin is undervalued, little changed from December of last year; while only 7% of institutional investors and 11% of non-institutional investors believe Bitcoin is overvalued.
Furthermore, expectations regarding Bitcoin's dominance have shifted to a "stable state." The percentage of institutional investors who expect Bitcoin's dominance to rise has decreased from 40% to 25%, while the majority of institutional investors (54%) now expect dominance to remain near its current level (up from 44% previously, with another 21% expecting it to decline).
Market Overview
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) fell by approximately 18% in the first quarter of 2026 due to widespread sell-offs. Notably, the total supply of stablecoins increased from $308 billion to $318 billion during the same period, suggesting that some sellers may have chosen to remain within the crypto ecosystem and wait for market volatility to subside.
In terms of correlation with macro assets, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin's average daily return and the return of US stocks (represented by the S&P 500 index) rose to 0.58, which means that although there are some differences in absolute performance indicators, this correlation is still statistically significant.
Meanwhile, to the disappointment of most crypto market participants, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold remains negligible, as gold has emerged as one of the best-performing assets in 2025.
Cryptocurrency Correlation Matrix with Macro Assets
Bitcoin
Bitcoin options open interest rose slightly by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2025), while perpetual open interest saw a more significant recovery, increasing by approximately 8.6%. The latter suggests that the Bitcoin market structure may be normalizing following the deleveraging event on October 10, 2025.
Unrealized Net Profit/Loss (NUPL) is the difference between relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss. These ranges are designed to reflect the sentiment of different investors.
Looking at the NUPL indicator, after the sell-off in February, investor sentiment shifted from anxiety to fear, a state that persisted until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This sentiment was particularly strong in the early stages of the Iranian conflict. Recently, the indicator appeared to break into optimistic territory in April, but it remains largely driven by news events.
The Bitcoin supply traded in the past three months decreased by 37% in the first quarter of 2026, while the proportion of supply that has not been traded for more than a year increased by 1%, suggesting that some pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
The chart below shows the percentage of Bitcoin's total supply that is in a profitable state, along with two statistical intervals set at +1 and -1 standard deviations, respectively. These intervals represent important warning and accumulation zones. This indicator currently suggests that Bitcoin is in the accumulation zone, confirming a positive technical pattern heading into the second quarter of 2026.
The chart below compares the circulating supply of Bitcoin that has not been traded for at least a year with the circulating supply of Bitcoin that has been actively traded in the last three months. In the first quarter of 2026, the Bitcoin supply traded in the past three months decreased by 37%, while the proportion of the supply that has not been traded for more than a year increased by 1%, suggesting that some pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
The chart below shows the net change in long-term holder positions (based on a threshold of 155 days or more) and the net change in exchange-traded positions. The report argues that the convergence of these two data points (i.e., both long-term holder positions and exchange-traded net positions increasing simultaneously) can reveal the actual timing of profit-taking.
The period highlighted in green in the chart indicates that long-term holders increased their holdings while exchange holdings decreased. This suggests that tokens are leaving exchanges and increases the likelihood that long-term holders are more inclined to accumulate rather than disperse during this period.
Ethereum
During the sell-off in early February 2026, NUPL fell below the "surrender" phase and remained in that phase for most of the first quarter of 2026, but market sentiment began to shift to the "hope" phase starting in early April.
In the first quarter of 2026, the share of ETH that had remained unchanged for more than a year increased by 1%, while the share that had changed in the past three months decreased by 38%, suggesting that many pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
Related reading:Cryptocurrency Market Share Research Report, Q1 2026
