From a macro perspective, although interest rate cuts have not yet materialized, the market is still in a balance sheet expansion cycle, and liquidity is not lacking. US stocks and other risk assets still have funding support. In comparison, interest rate cuts are more of a "plus" than a decisive factor. As long as the technology sector maintains growth, overall risk appetite will not weaken significantly, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about a medium-term rebound in the crypto. Entering May, the market rhythm has gradually become more bullish, and bearish views need to be more cautious. The closer we get to the second half of the year, the more patient and rational we need to be. The long-term trend still leans towards bullishness.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently still operating within an upward channel on the daily chart, but has not yet completed a valid breakout. Therefore, there is still room for short-term speculation. The key resistance level to watch is 81.6K. If it can break through and hold above this level with significant volume, the market is likely to enter a one-sided upward phase, with ETH and altcoins also expected to catch up. Conversely, if it fails to break through, a pullback should be anticipated, with initial support at 78K, followed by the 72K area as a key support level. Currently, it is more advisable to patiently wait for a directional move rather than frequently chasing the market.
ETH's overall strength is slightly weaker than BTC, and its trend is more dependent on the broader market. If BTC breaks through successfully, ETH is expected to start a catch-up rally, with the first phase targeting the 2500-2600 range, and a further potential target of 2800-3200. However, if BTC encounters resistance and falls back, ETH will also experience a larger drop, with the first support level to watch being the 2280-2320 range, and the more crucial area for buying on dips remaining around 2000-2100.
The key to the market in the short term is whether BTC can break through. In terms of operation, it is recommended to observe and follow the trend, and avoid excessive speculation when the direction is unclear.
The operations during this period were quite typical—the process was arduous, but the results were solid.
The long position in SOL has indeed had a rough ride, but the medium-term logic remains valid since the strategy was outlined at the end of April, and the price action is progressing as expected. The most difficult aspect of this type of market isn't predicting the direction, but rather holding onto the position. The same issue arose with DOGE; the key this time lies in whether the strategy can be truly executed.
The logic for AR is clearer: US AI and storage stocks have strengthened across the board, while the crypto has clearly lagged behind, so positioning oneself in the storage sector early is a strategic move. Currently, AR is leading the charge and starting to gain momentum; the key is whether it can maintain its core position. Once it does, it has the potential for a larger-scale rally. Other stocks in the same sector, such as FIL and STORJ, can also be observed as supplementary indicators.
AI remains a key focus. TAO has already completed its first round of funding, and we currently favor VIRTUAL as a potential successor. Projects like this, with their compelling narratives and anticipated surprises, are better suited for medium-term investment rather than short-term speculation. The main focus going forward will likely revolve around "AI + Web3," with the core strategy being to select projects that genuinely possess strong teams, advanced technology, and long-term growth potential.
PENGU is one of the few cryptocurrencies that has recently broken out of its long-term consolidation range and shown strong performance. Those who bought in at lower levels earlier have already seen good returns. The key to investing in this type of asset remains patient holding, rather than frequent switching.
CRV's current price and volume are showing good correlation, and the trend seems to have some sustainability. However, it's important to note that if this upward trend reverses, a rapid decline is also possible. Therefore, when participating, it's crucial to implement profit-taking and risk management strategies.
In summary, now is not the time for "blindly investing heavily," but rather a time for carefully selecting sectors, controlling position size, and patiently holding on. Real profits often come from a few opportunities that you correctly identify and hold onto.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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