The DeFi Report (TDR), a cryptocurrency analytics company, stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin’s current uptrend is facing its biggest test yet. Company founder Michael Nadeau evaluated recent market developments and on-chain data, offering important warnings about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
While a “bullish” sentiment prevails in the market as the Bitcoin price approaches the $80,000 mark, analysts at The DeFi Report are cautious about the sustainability of this trend. The analysis points out that the current momentum is weakening and that the market is at a critical breaking point.
Bitcoin closed the week above the average cost basis ($79,000) for short-term investors (those holding for less than 155 days). While analysts believe this has signaled the end of a bear market in the past, comparisons with the 2018 and 2022 cycles suggest the current situation may still be “too early” for a sustained bull run.
Analysts note that the 200-day moving average, currently at $82,700, represents very strong resistance and that the price has yet to hold above this level.
According to analysts, the $85,000 level is seen as the realized price by active investors and is creating a significant supply wall in the market.
An analysis of on-chain data reveals that investors who have held Bitcoin for 2 to 3 years (with costs ranging from $27,000 to $72,000) have begun realizing profits as the price approaches $80,000. This suggests that “older” investors are viewing the current rally as an opportunity to cash out.
The 3.8% CPI and the higher-than-expected 6% PPI data released in the US are making the Fed’s interest rate reduction process more difficult. According to analysts, this situation may continue to put pressure on risky assets.
In addition, according to analysts, June is generally known as a weak month for Bitcoin. In bear market years, June typically closes with an average drop of 20%.
*This is not investment advice.
