Hyperliquid is undoubtedly the hottest asset in the crypto world recently, and its token HYPE has been soaring, currently above $56.
Based on a circulating supply of approximately 254 million units, its circulating market capitalization is approximately US$14.4 billion; while based on a maximum supply of 1 billion units, its FDV (fully diluted valuation) is approximately US$56.7 billion.
Some people think it's already too expensive, with some whale voting with their feet and heavily shorting it; others believe this is just the beginning, and have even compared it to Robinhood Markets, CME Group, and Nasdaq .
Valuation logic for crypto projects is usually clear: L1 looks at the ecosystem, DeFi looks at TVL, Memes look at sentiment and traffic, and platform tokens look at transaction fees and buybacks. But HYPE is a complex entity . It is a perp DEX, its own chain and ecosystem; it has the attributes of a platform token and real cash flow; it is similar to BNB, but it is also increasingly encroaching on the traditional financial world, resembling a global exchange.
So, how much should HYPE actually be worth?
Arthur Hayes: $150 | $38 billion market capitalization | $150 billion FDV
Currently, the most widely discussed target price for HYPE in the market comes from Arthur Hayes.
In March 2026, Arthur Hayes wrote in his article "$$HYPE Man": "My August 2026 target price for $$HYPE is $150", and he saw $150 in August.
Arthur Hayes' core logic for presenting these figures isn't simply based on transaction volume growth, but rather on his view that Hyperliquid has become one of the few truly effective " cash flow machines " in the crypto industry. He also wrote in his article, "No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid."
He said Hyperliquid is more like an exchange that continuously buys back shares than a traditional Altcoin.
DCo: $60 | $15.2 billion circulating market capitalization | $60 billion FDV
In contrast to Arthur Hayes's radical approach, the research firm DCo represents a more traditional valuation analysis approach.
On March 13, 2026, a Hyperliquid valuation model article published by DCo was widely circulated. It stated, "HYPE's current price of $37 has fallen below the bear market target price of $60." In other words, even according to their most conservative "bear market valuation model," HYPE should have reached $60, and it is now close to their predicted price.
DCo's core logic was to directly compare Hyperliquid to CME . They believed that Hyperliquid's revenue at the time was close to 15% of CME's, but its overall valuation was far lower than CME's. The market hadn't truly factored in the future potential of HIP-3, multi-asset trading, and global liquidity networks into Hyperliquid's price.
Coincub (conservative version): $120 | $30.5 billion circulating market capitalization | $120 billion FDV
Coincub Bull Market Version: $300 | $76.2 billion Circulating Market Cap | $300 billion FDV
The research platform Coincub provides a model that predicts cryptocurrency market trends, and it comes in two versions.
A conservative estimate is $50-$120. Coincub's valuation logic is that Hyperliquid will gradually become the on-chain derivatives infrastructure and continue to absorb trading volume from centralized exchanges . If the crypto bull market returns, they believe HYPE should rise to $180-$300.
They believe that Hyperliquid is not only an excellent DeFi protocol, but has begun to compete with global trading platforms such as Binance and Coinbase, and has also gained adoption by institutional traders, thus entering the valuation system of "global trading infrastructure".
CoinCodex: $100 | $25.4 billion Circulating Market Cap | $100 billion FDV
Quantitative forecasting platform CoinCodex wrote on its forecast page that, according to its algorithm model, HYPE is expected to reach $100 in February 2027, but the forecast range for 2026 remains concentrated between $41 and $56.
CoinCodex believes that HYPE does have long-term growth potential, but the market has already priced in expectations in the short term .
Coinpedia: $185 | $47 billion circulating market capitalization | $185 billion FDV
Coinpedia's HYPE forecast page gives a price range of $105-$185 for 2030.
Its core logic is based on a long-term compound interest model : continuous expansion of Hyperliquid perp volume, growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, continuous improvement of fee capture, and the effectiveness of the long-term buyback mechanism.
3Commas: $45-50 | $11.4-12.7 billion circulating market capitalization | $45-50 billion FDV
According to the TradingBeasts and WalletInvestor models compiled by 3Commas, HYPE's projected price for 2026 remains concentrated in the $45.2-$49.6 range.
Their model leans more towards technical analysis and historical volatility prediction , and doesn't give Hyperliquid much of a "global exchange premium".
In other words, they believe that the current price has reached a reasonable range.
Axel Bitblaze: $180-$360 | $45.7-$91.4 billion Circulating Market Cap | $180-$360 billion FDV
In addition to institutions and research models, increasingly aggressive super bulls have also emerged on X.
Leading crypto influencer Axel Bitblaze believes HYPE's reasonable price is in the $180-$360 range, which has garnered considerable support and recognition from his followers.
His core logic is that Hyperliquid will eventually possess the platform attributes of Binance, the blockchain attributes of Solana, and the trading attributes of CME .
Where is the valuation ceiling for HYPE?
By putting together all the clear price views from the past period, it can be seen that the market's valuation of HYPE has become stratified.
Many institutions believe that a price range of $40-60, a circulating market capitalization of approximately $10-15 billion, and a FDV of approximately $40-60 billion basically reflect Hyperliquid's current revenue capacity, meaning that the current price has likely peaked in the short term.
The "bullish" range is between $100 and $150, which translates to a circulating market capitalization of approximately $250-380 billion and a FDV of approximately $1000-1500 billion.
The most aggressive super bulls have already begun pushing HYPE towards $180-$360, corresponding to hundreds of billions of dollars in FDV.
In addition, although many institutions did not give specific price predictions, they also wrote articles stating that HYPE should be repriced.
Matt Hougan once stated that the market is still pricing Hyperliquid as a crypto perp DEX, but what Hyperliquid actually wants to do is to become a global trading platform covering stocks, forex, commodities, and prediction markets.
21Shares wrote in its research: "Hyperliquid not only reacted faster, it even priced in the shock almost 48 hours earlier than the traditional financial system."
Institutions have discovered that, when geopolitical conflicts and price discovery capabilities in the crude oil market are disrupted and traditional markets close, on-chain contracts on Hyperliquid have already completed global pricing in advance.
This is why, starting in May, more and more institutions began to compare Hyperliquid to UNI and dYdX instead of CME, ICE, and Nasdaq.
This is what ignited the market. Regardless of whether there is a short-term pullback, the basic consensus in the market is that HYPE prices still have a lot of room to grow from their narrative ceiling.
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