The situation in Iran has suddenly changed, and there are essentially three possible outcomes: 1. A deal is reached (even a short-term one) → Oil prices break $90, risk assets take off 2. The stalemate continues → Oil prices fluctuate between $95 and $105, the most agonizing scenario 3. Trump overturns the agreement → Oil prices reach $120+, a complete collapse However, the market is clearly heavily betting on an imminent agreement, and three signals this morning do indeed point in this direction: 1/ The oil tanker that had been stuck in the Strait of Hormuz for nearly three months quietly sailed away last night. 2/ Brent crude oil plunged 5%, hitting $98. 3/ The 225 index broke through 65,000 points, surging 3%. But here's the contradiction—Rubio said there's a credible plan and he hopes to reach an agreement, with a signing as early as Monday. Trump, however, stated that the US-Iran agreement is "not yet fully agreed upon." But Iran says that a final memorandum of understanding has not yet been reached, and some terms are still disputed. Iran's Supreme Leader is currently hiding in a secret location and communicating through messengers. It's 2026 and they're still using the old-fashioned relay system; the substantive progress in negotiations is practically zero. So the situation is really awkward: oil prices are already trading according to a peaceful script, but nothing has been agreed upon on the surface. The market is heavily betting on a deal, but frankly, the biggest variable has never been Iran—it's Trump's next tweet. This guy can go from "deal is close" one second to "bomb bomb bomb" the next; his mental state is far ahead of the curve. Which script are you betting on?