In the past 24 hours, a total of 104,342 people in the crypto market have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $248 million.
Money is being siphoned off the crypto from multiple sources simultaneously: ETFs are dumping, whales are reducing their holdings, retail investors are being fleeced, US stocks are absorbing capital, the World Cup is draining funds, and interest rate hikes are looming. Each straw may not be fatal, but when tied together, they can break a camel's back. This isn't history repeating itself, but rather history being escalated. The complexity and severity of this bear market far surpasses those of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Everyone should be vigilant and respect the market.
BTC: The darkness before dawn, or the beginning of the abyss?
Bitcoin closed with a doji candlestick this morning, marking its third consecutive weekly bearish week. The repeated attempts to break below 74200 without success indicate significant selling pressure and a large number of trapped investors at this level. If it fails to hold above 74500 tonight, it will likely retrace to around 70,000.
In terms of trading strategy, the closer to 70,000, the more opportunities there are to buy on dips. For example, consider buying on a buy the dips between 70,555 and 69,666, with no set profit target yet. The upside resistance levels are 7.49 and 7.6. As long as the 7.46 level is not effectively broken, the medium- to long-term strategy remains to short.
ETH: Downtrend continuation, patiently wait for a rebound before shorting!
Ethereum is clearly in a downtrend right now. Don't be fooled by the short-term fluctuations; it's actually a continuation of the downtrend. Looking at the smaller timeframes, it's been fluctuating, but the price is right around the support level. So, as long as the support holds, there's a high probability of a rebound, with the high estimated around 2060, which is also the short-term resistance level.
Today's strategy is simple: short for a rebound before shorting, and place orders around 2060. If the first low on a smaller timeframe isn't broken, it's likely to see a double bottom followed by a rebound, so don't rush, patiently wait for the rebound before shorting.
Altcoin
AI is currently the only sustainable and profitable niche market.
The leading cryptocurrencies have been constantly changing, from TAO to RENDER, then to FET, and now it's WLD's turn. There are also lottery-like coins like ALLO that double in value in a single day. Currently, the main ones that haven't seen much price movement are LINK and VIRTUAL.
LINK is a mainstream coin, riding the wave of three hot topics: oracles, RWA, and AI. However, its large market capitalization makes a short-term surge unlikely, making it more suitable for medium- to long-term investment. I personally have a more positive outlook on VIRTUAL, not because of its technical aspects, but because the AI Agent narrative is gaining traction, and it fits perfectly into this direction. Its current stagnation is likely due to accumulation phases.
For lottery coins, keep an eye on ROBO; when I mentioned it last time, it was around 0.18. Physics and AI might be the next hot topic, and ROBO is currently the only one that even remotely relates to it. Like BIO's connection to life sciences, it can surge when a hot topic emerges. But remember, these lottery coins are only suitable for small amounts of capital. If you dare to invest heavily, then you're just waiting to lose everything.
SOL
SOL has fallen back to the lower edge of the major channel, with clear support around 80.5, as several consecutive candlesticks have shown long lower shadows. The most crucial level going forward isn't 80, but 86, where the downtrend line and moving average resistance converge. A break above 86 would target 90 to 95.
XNY
XNY is currently around 0.0071, and it's showing a topping pattern on a smaller timeframe, so it's likely to fall back quickly. You could consider a small short position, just for fun.
BNB
BNB surged all day yesterday, but started to slowly decline today. The official announcement hasn't been released yet, so the specifics are unclear. However, if it's truly a positive development like "BNB can be used as transaction fees," then it might see another surge.
Binance Life
Binance's $100 million has quietly reached a new high, now at $700 million. It really struggled around $400 million for a long time. Yesterday I said if it couldn't go down, it would go up, and a lot of people mocked me. Actually, I was explaining this logic around $0.4; the fact that the market hasn't fallen further indicates that there are big players supporting it. What are they supporting for? Of course, to continue pushing the price up. If you still don't understand, then forget it.
HYPE
HYPE is currently in a bullish trend, with both daily and weekly charts showing accelerated rebounds above the zero line, indicating an independent bull market. The core strategy is to long on pullbacks. Short-term resistance is seen at 75.5, with support at 66.75. As long as this support holds, a bearish outlook is not warranted; this is the bulls' defensive level. For trading, consider buying on pullbacks to the 70.15-68.85 range, with targets at 78.5-82.5.
LAB
Just one more thing, I didn't dare to join LAB when it was five dollars, and just now I saw it's already ten dollars, so I missed another doubling opportunity. But luckily, it's not busy either, since the club is starting to empty again.
Reminder: This week is non-farm payroll week, and volatility is expected to be very high. The overall trend for BTC and ETH remains bearish, but there will be various opportunities for oversold rebounds. Altcoin can be traded with small positions to capitalize on rebounds in trending or strong-performing coins.
But remember, the bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish, but first you have to make sure you're still on the boat! Set stop-loss orders, manage your positions well, and when the opportunity comes, just go for it!
