Last night was another turbulent night for the crypto. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, a total of 103,740 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total amount of $302 million.
The market is relatively quiet; BTC and ETH haven't fallen sharply enough, and short positions haven't had much of a chance to rebound. It's currently a typical, frustrating, narrow-range trading pattern; without shaking out a number of people, the market is unlikely to break out of its current range.
The US CPI data will be released tomorrow night, and current expectations suggest a continued negative impact on interest rate cuts. This will be a test for BTC and ETH. Can they stabilize after the pullback? Will it form a double bottom, or will it break down and continue to fall? The answer will be revealed soon.
BTC: Can it hold on?
Bitcoin formed a doji candlestick pattern in the morning and fluctuated between 62,400 and 63,800 during the day, unable to break through. It strengthened on the hourly chart in the afternoon, and the MACD returned above the zero line.
Remember two points when operating:
First, as long as it doesn't break 61200, the rebound is still going strong. If you want to buy more, wait until it's below 62000 before looking for opportunities. If you're not holding any positions, you can try a small trade around 62455, with a stop loss at 62299 and a take profit target of 62850 to 63250.
Secondly, the resistance levels are at 64100 and 65700-67500. Short can short with a small position between 63300 and 63800, with a stop loss at 64251 and a take profit target of 62855 to 62666.
ETH: Rebound failed to hold
Ethereum bounced briefly on a minor level, but failed to hold and was pushed back down. It's too early to say the decline has bottomed out; we need to watch for a second bottom, around 1570. From a technical perspective, this forms an M-top, meaning a further pullback is expected.
In the short term, focus on the support level of 1570. Wait for it to complete a second pullback before observing the pattern to consider going long. Currently, there is indeed a need for a pullback on a smaller timeframe.
Altcoin
Let's talk about survival strategies for BSC: Many people complain about not making money on BSC, but it's not that you can't make money; you can always make one or two big profits every now and then. The problem isn't increasing revenue, but controlling expenses. To put it bluntly, you make some money, but then lose it all back.
The way to lose money is also quite typical: after finally making a big profit, people get carried away. They chase after things they wouldn't have done before, and try to buy at the bottom they wouldn't buy the dips before. Unrealized profits make your operations rough and your judgments unreliable, so naturally, you can't hold onto your money.
So the key is this: control drawdowns! Even if you make a lot of money, don't buy at the peak, and definitely don't try to buy the buy the dips in coins that don't make sense. Earn more when liquidity is good, and lose less when liquidity is bad—that's the most practical way to accumulate profits.
H
The H Foundation's private key was leaked, causing the token to plummet by 86%, with the price still dropping on-chain, reaching 0.003, essentially worthless. Currently, there's a huge price difference between futures and spot prices; Binance's perpetual contract is still at 0.06, a 20-fold difference compared to on-chain. Don't try to short in the short term. While the bottom has stabilized, the volatility has shaken out many investors. The target is at least 0.15.
BEAT
BEAT is about to collapse. Is it really heading towards a major top? My short position placed at 4.5 yesterday went in perfectly. It has already dropped by about 20%. I took some profit and left the rest in the open position to break even. I'm waiting to see if it can drop to the bottom with a big bearish candle. I don't even want to think about a major crash.
FTT
FTT releases some positive news every now and then, like the guy with the explosive hairstyle applying for release from prison, followed by a pump and dump, so the price won't rise too much. Unless he actually gets out, but the probability is too low. I'm only looking at the bearish conditions: a break below 0.2305, or a rebound to 0.3443-0.3485 followed by weakness; it only becomes invalid if it rises above 0.4288.
SAHARA
SAHARA experienced a flash crash of 60%, becoming the cryptocurrency with the most severe liquidations across the entire network. The surge in trading volume and abnormally high market capitalization ratio clearly indicate that the project team artificially inflated the price to lure in more buyers before dumping the shares.
Don't rush to buy the dips. The selling pressure from the unlocking hasn't been fully digested, and the market is still in a state of panic. Keep an eye on three points: whether there has been a continuous surge in buying volume after the sharp drop, whether the rebound can recover above 0.02, and whether the market continues to decline or experiences sharp drops before the unlocking on June 26th.
Reminder: When the market lacks a clear direction, preserving your principal is more important than anything else.
