Looking ahead, the release of liquidity and the implementation of macro policies will be the core driving forces for the market to rise.
Article author and source: Xinhuo Group
Bitcoin rebounded sharply this week, easing extreme panic in the crypto market, with multiple indicators showing a significant bottoming out. From a market perspective, net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to narrow, and the negative premium between Coinbase and USDT steadily corrected. Combined with industry fundamentals, the shutdown cost for mainstream mining machines is concentrated between $30,000 and $50,000, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the industry's costs – a classic signal of previous crypto market bottoms.
From the perspective of first-hand trading, the trend of institutional funds deploying funds against the market trend is also prominent. Taking Xinhuo Group as an example, its weekly over-the-counter (OTC) trading volume increased by more than 8 times compared to the previous week, and the number of active users on the platform doubled simultaneously. Both core business data reached record highs, confirming a significant increase in the activity of large-scale fund transactions recently, and a surge in demand for OTC funds against the trend. Xinhuo Research Institute also monitored on-chain data, showing that some institutional funds with listed company attributes and ancient whale labels chose to intensively buy the dips at the key price range of $60,000 and actively enter the market. Since mid-May, Xinhuo Research Institute has been continuously pointing out that the "high cost-performance" investment window has reopened, and the previous judgment has been validated again. The market is completing the shift from panic selling to long-term holding.
Looking ahead, liquidity injections and the implementation of macroeconomic policies will be the core drivers propelling the market upward. SpaceX's successful IPO and strong performance have reignited market optimism, and the massive funds frozen during its IPO are now being released. This renewed liquidity will inevitably seek new value opportunities, spilling over into currently undervalued assets like Bitcoin. On the macroeconomic and policy front, Kevin Warsh's first speech at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on the 18th (Beijing time) will be crucial, directly setting the tone for near-term monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, if the Clarity Act is successfully passed by the end of July, it will significantly boost institutional confidence in attracting investment. Combining bottoming characteristics with multiple positive factors in terms of liquidity and policy, Newfire Research Institute remains optimistic about the market's future performance.
