This is an old article, it is more appropriate to post it again today, let us start to recall the past. The content has been slightly modified, thanks to the original author Xiaoge for authorization.
I haven't checked WeChat for the past two days, but I saw more than 2,000 unread messages from Ape Stepn OG CLUB. I thought something big had happened. It turned out that the price of Ape shoes dropped to 0.53E at the lowest price, and EGST also dropped from 8.x U to 3.xU. The group was filled with disappointment and complaints, and it almost became a rights protection group. It's just a pain in the ass, as an old user of S chain, B chain and 800 functions, I also want to talk nonsense.
1 For all X to earn, most people must lose money
Whenever the price drops, a large number of people will come out to sue the project team or make various suggestions. It seems that the project party has the obligation, responsibility, and ability to keep the price from falling—even if it first pulls up and then pulls back, it will not work, because there are always high positions to enter the market.
Everyone should understand that chain games are a financial game. No matter how aggressive Stepn is, it is still a financial game. Even if it is topped with WEB 3.0, X to Earn, Chinese Light, etc., it is still a financial game.
In other words, everything is next door. Almost a side game called CX. If it is done better, it is called a bubble, such as real estate. If it is done better, it is called a soft landing of the economy.
In a side-by-side financial game, the vast majority of people are doomed to lose money. The king of value coins recognized in the currency circle should have no objection to saying that it is a big pie. Well, in the past ten years or so, Dabing has increased tens of thousands of times. Guess, are there more people making money on it or more people losing money?
No matter how valuable Stepn is, can it surpass the pie? cannot.
As long as there is human greed, there will be group irrationality and fluctuations. Where there is volatility, there is risk, and someone will lose money.
Therefore, the reason why most people lose money on Stepn is not that the project is not doing well enough. Instead, as long as you are participating in a financial game, it is already doomed that most people will lose money.
In a game where the vast majority of people lose money, if you want to make money, you have to focus on the vast majority of people who are losing money, and then leave the path of few people. If all your investment behaviors are the same as most people, what's the point of keeping your eyes on the project? What's the point of you scolding the project party out?
This is not a question of whether the project party has the ability to control the market, nor is it a question of whether he is reluctant to spend money to control the market. It is to let the vast majority of people make money, which is impossible at all.
Carrots know about this, and so does the project team. If you don't know it today, you are the vast majority.
Therefore, scolding the project team as soon as it loses money, the focus of attention is obviously wrong. If you want to make money, you have to watch how other retail investors do it. The focus should never deviate.
2 That is nothing more than a time-limited withdrawal certificate
When chatting with old users of our S chain and B chain, we sometimes joked that "the market value of shoes has shrunk, so we can't calculate it carefully, and the blood pressure can't be controlled after a calculation."
Among the big investors like us, the market value of tens of millions of U has shrunk. Considering Stepn's astonishing total number of users, the cumulative market value shrinkage is a shocking astronomical figure.
Here comes the question, everyone has lost so much, who made the money? We, Zhang, San, Li, Si, Wang and Wu, have lost a total of 100 million yuan. Is there another person who has made 100 million yuan?
no. Zhang San Li Si Wang Wu, never really owned 100 million.
It was all an illusion. That is all illusion.
The 100 million is just a time-limited withdrawal certificate, not 100 million in real money.
Let us use a more vivid and simplified model to understand the essence of this game: Assume that all of our players are only four people, A, D, C, and D, where A is the project team and the others are ordinary players. Everyone sits in a circle. In front of each person is the amount of money they can mobilize by playing the game, assuming that the accumulated funds of these four people are 1 million.
The project party, A, organizes everyone to play a game together. He took out a stack of chips, 100 in total. He gave
I kept 30 for myself, and then gave 40 to S, 20 to C, and 10 to D. When they started trading these chips for real money, these chips began to have a market value.
When the latest transaction was 100,000 yuan and 1 chip was sold. Everyone feels rich. A's chips have a market value of 3 million, B 4 million, C 2 million, and D 1 million.
Everyone is happy, everyone feels that they "already" "earned" that much money. Because at this time, if you sell 1 chip, you can really receive 100,000 yuan.
But all this is an illusion. Because the total funds of all the players at the poker table are only 1 million, but they made a market value of 10 million.
So, you see that the market value of shoes on your account is 3 million, but it is not really 3 million. What it really means is a time-limited withdrawal warrant of 3 million. It just represents how much money you can withdraw from the market at the moment. How much money can be withdrawn from this warrant is changing at any time, and it will be invalidated if it is not used.
However, because the total funds on the table are only 1 million RMB. Therefore, the essence of this game becomes a game between players: you have to collect as many chips as possible, and then exercise the right to withdraw these chips at the relative peak of the market value, and put the money on the table of other players into into your pocket.
There are a lot of games here. If you exercise the right to withdraw the chips too early, you will be able to withdraw less. Exercising the right to withdraw chips too late, the money on the table may have been withdrawn by other players.
So, how do you win this game? You can't just stare at project party A, you have to stare at other players C and D at the same time.
I understand a lot of people's anger towards the project when the price drops. I have also read many letters of complaint from veteran players who are full of literary talent and tears. Basically, I am full of grievances, why am I a loyal old user and old player. He highly recognized the project, invested a lot of time, and even mobilized relatives and friends around to participate. For the game, it can be said to be heavily involved, how many levels to upgrade, how to increase points, how to use gems, how to fight Kaiwangquan, every detail is like a treasure.
Such a loyal old user who kept reinvesting real money lost money in the end? Are you working on personnel for the project? If you do this, is it worthy of the emotions of our veteran users in the city? Are you worthy of our trust in you? What about the Light of the Chinese? What about the big picture? What about the desire to change the world? After earning so much money, why don't you back it up? Why let BAYC holders run first, why not take care of us old users?
A piece of sincerity, after all, it was a wrong payment. The more belief and emotion you have in the project, the deeper the hurt.
I originally set my heart to illuminate the moon, but the bright moon shines on the ditch.
I understand the deep resentment. But behind this resentment, the game they understand is not real.
In the game they understand, they have reached a contract with the project party: the project party is responsible for delivering a good product, investing money and time in return for an appropriate return.
Therefore, when losing money, it will naturally be filled with a lot of resentment towards the project party. In such a game, there are only two players, the project party and itself. But the real game is a mutual game between project parties, institutions, and a large number of retail investors.
Always regard the chips in hand as a time-limited withdrawal certificate, rather than real money, which is conducive to always reminding us to see the big picture of the entire game. What we want to focus on is not the project team, but the actions of other players.
From this perspective, you can probably understand why most of the people who make money on STEPN are those who do on-chain data analysis and data kanban. Because the data board reflects the actions of other players, you can play better games based on this.
3 Those who pay should not teach those who do things how to do things
Sometimes, we forget that we are investors. The position determines the head, and the profit and loss bring emotional involvement. So unconsciously, there are various emotional catharsis, moral pressure, or suggestions for the project party.
But investors mainly use money to express their views and vote with their feet. Especially when you yourself are just a small group and have no resources or the ability to have a substantial impact on the project. All you can decide is your own money.
I went to eat a bowl of beef noodle, it was not good. I just change it. There is no need to teach the chef how to make more delicious noodles. That's his job, not yours.
If the project team is doing well, the project development has prospects, and if there is money to be made, I will increase my position. Otherwise, I lighten up.
Of course, this does not mean that the project party has done something wrong or committed evil, so they cannot be scolded or even defend their rights. I don't encourage no brains to kneel down and lick projects.
Rather, there is a cost to offering advice and suggestions, there is a cost to venting emotions, and fairness and justice are even more costly.
Compared with the costs of time and money, I think the biggest cost is to voluntarily give up the right to make decisions about investment profits and losses psychologically. I unconsciously put myself in the role of a passive, weak, and ignorant victim. It seems that the profit or loss of investment does not depend on myself, but on the ability and conscience of the other party.
The amount of my investment losses is at least tens of millions, and projects with large losses and zero losses are not uncommon. In some of these projects, the cutting of vegetables is indeed very bad. But for so many years, I have never denounced any project in any public place. Not to mention participating in rights protection.
I just think that cutting me off is also your skill. You make money with your ability, but I am not good at learning, so I deserve to pay the tuition.
My life is up to me, let alone a mere project party.
I am 100% owner of my wallet, and I fully assume all investment responsibilities, regardless of profit or loss.
4 How early is early entry? How fast is considered fast?
Those players who entered early and ran fast all made money.
This is a phrase often heard in chats. This sentence is especially common in the chain game circle, and it can be called the existence of the golden rule. It is rare to hear someone playing GAMEFI saying that I want to invest in value and hold on to things that don't move for 10 years.
Chain games have their particularities. The biggest particularity comes from the fact that it belongs to the field of games.
The life cycle of traditional games is actually only half a year to two years. After adding the catalyst of Fi, its life cycle is further shortened.
Therefore, when players are playing games, the window period for everyone to Rug Pull is very short. Therefore, playing chain games is so particular about entering early and running fast.
But how early is early? How fast is fast? What is the basis for the decision?
The decision-making basis of retail investors naturally likes to look at the point. Price points or time points.
Why don't retail investors like big cakes? Because the unit price of the pie is too high. When retail investors see a coin with a very small unit price, they inexplicably feel that it has more potential.
Why are relatively few people playing monkey shoes? There are many reasons, but one of the most important is that its unit price is relatively high.
Retail investors are also obsessed with predicting how much a certain coin will rise and fall. Because of the precise point, he can maximize profits and avoid risks.
If he sells a coin at $100 and then it rises to $300, he will feel the pain of being short. The reverse is also the same, resulting in intense quilt pain.
Therefore, one of the favorite things for players who play STEPN is to guess how much GMT can rise.
Point thinking corresponds to chain games, which is a very rigid time setting for the so-called early entry and early running.
At the end of February and the beginning of March, I repeatedly recommended everyone to play Stepn through various public channels. But 99% of the people refused, the reason is that it is too late to enter at this time. In the concept of many people,
As long as you don't come in the first month, or even the first week, it's too late.
Similarly, when BSC was newly launched, many people felt that the project had entered a period of decline. Also, now that Ape realm is newly opened, many people feel that the project is in a dying throes. So far, I have missed one opportunity after another with very high certainty to make money.
Retail investors like points, and birds like to watch cycles and trends.
In November last year, my friend and I earnestly advised to start doing defense and stop profit. At that time, almost the whole network was watching that the pie would reach 10W. All kinds of fundamental and technical analysis are well-founded.
It is predicted that the pie will reach 10W. It's just a point of view, regardless of how much data and indicators are behind it. It is all point thinking.
The reason why I advise my friends to be defensive and stop profit is also very simple. The reason for the existence is that the market has been going on for more than a year, and the hot spots of the hype have been hyped one after another, and there is no bigger theme that can set off a new round of narrative hot spots.
When it is more critical, the more people have already made dozens of times the profit, and the lesser have also made several times the profit. From the perspective of investment strategy, what is more important now is how to keep profits in this cycle. Instead of doing some icing on the cake.
This does not involve the support of any data indicators. Purely considering Soros' reflexivity:
When the price has risen enough, all fundamental and technical analysis is meaningless, and the price has already been priced in.
When the stock has fallen enough, all fundamental and technical analysis is meaningless, and the price has already been priced in.
When looking at operations from the perspective of cycles and trends, as opposed to point thinking, you have to accept that kind of ambiguous correctness.
Better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
Can the big pie rise to 100,000 yuan? Everything is uncertain. However, at the end of last year, it was possible to lighten up.
This year, my wife has fallen below 1,000 US dollars, will it continue to fall to 500? It's hard to say. However, this price has already entered the bottom range, and it is possible to open a position.
Back to Stepn, how to judge which step the project cycle has reached?
It's hard to say. Anyway, you need to have some perception of the trend of the market and the development of the entire blockchain game track. And, all kinds of on-chain data of the project should be analyzed and interpreted at any time.
Omitting the analysis process, I will briefly state my own personal conclusion:
The entire project cycle of Stepn will be much longer than many of us imagined. Against this backdrop, chain games may explode in the fourth quarter, and Stepn, as the leader, will undoubtedly rise.
In addition, Stepn's highly innovative Realm gameplay can continuously renew the life of the project.
Think about it carefully, why the first Realm is called SOL Realm, the second Realm is called BSC Realm, and the third Realm is called Ape ETH ?
The planning and intentions of the project party have already been revealed.
Therefore, Ape Realm is a small cycle nested in a large cycle, and the certainty of making money is actually very high. Its development will also exceed many people's expectations. Ape Realm is such a small plate, the project team has the determination and ability to maintain it well.
I know that many people bought Ape shoes at a high price, felt very angry after being covered, and accused the project team of poor control.
I still say that financial games are always just games for a few people to make money.
Although I am very confident in Ape Realm. However, after receiving the shoes, I cleared most of them with about 2ETH, leaving only 2 pairs of shoes for gold, to keep my continuous attention and sensitivity to the project. At the same time, small funds made Egst band, 3u in, 5.XU out.
In the past few days when everyone is very FUD, I have brought back more shoes around 0.6 E. No matter it is used for making gold or burning shoes 5 in 1, it is very comfortable.
Guess, will now be a very good time to Bottom Fishing?
5 Stepn's biggest future opportunity lies in Genesis Shoes
Stepn distinguishes Genesis shoes from Jinda shoes, which is a very compelling innovation.
Genesis shoes are the real NFT in the category of collectibles.
Chain games, NFT blue chips, and currency issuance. In the future, no matter which angle you start with, you will definitely do a full set of these three.
After Monkey became an NFT blue chip, it started to issue Ape and started to create ape universe.
After Stepn becomes the leader of Web 3.0, it will also supplement the NFT blue chip section. Genesis shoes are the long-awaited foreshadowing and Wang Zha.
Most people are doomed to miss Genesis shoes.
Because of their understanding of Genesis Shoes, they stay in the NFT of VIP membership cards. Opening your mouth and shutting your mouth means various AirDrop, various rights and interests, and various empowerments. The project team is also cooperating to say that it will give Genesis various rights, various empowerments, and various AirDrop. There is no way, because retail investors only have this level of understanding.
The various rights and interests of Genesis Shoes are the result of becoming an NFT blue chip, not the cause.
All rights and interests are valuable and calculable.
If the calculation is too clear, there will be no room for imagination and speculation.
The shoes with very clear rights and interests are the shoes we use to make money. The price of the mining machine depends entirely on the actuarial calculation of the mining income. There is no way to generate a premium.
Therefore, various empowerments and AirDrop are not the driving force for the rise of Genesis Shoes, but obstacles.
Useless is great use. Only the air can float to the sky.
GMT can skyrocket by 40 times. In addition to the high degree of market control, another important reason is that there is no empowerment at that time, and the value depends entirely on imagination.
I personally think that Genesis Shoes should operate on the route of social capital. Why are monkeys so expensive? Not because it has various AirDrop. Rather, it claims to have won over the richest group of people in the circle. Owning a monkey is a status symbol of the nobility in the currency circle. Therefore, rich people are willing to pay for it.
A mobile phone company that has been around for more than 90 years needs the wages of an ordinary worker for more than ten years. Now everyone has a smartphone. In terms of function, how does Big Brother compare with current smartphones? In terms of price, the smartphone is now just the younger brother.
At that time, being able to have a big brother was a symbol of proper strength and class.
Does this thing need it for anything? Not very necessary. The most important function is to distinguish me from ordinary dicks, that's enough.
There are many kinds of things that can become social capital, but they all have one thing in common—expensive.
It must be so expensive that ordinary people cannot afford it.
So, how can Genesis Shoes become the social capital of the currency circle bigwigs? very simple. It is expensive.
Prices pull up. Pulled to the point where ordinary retail investors can't afford it.
Look at the amount of pending orders for Genesis Shoes, how much money is needed to pull them up? Do the math yourself, take out your calculator and do it quickly.
In addition to being expensive, you must cooperate with the second action. It is to broadly release a message to ordinary retail investors to let them know that this thing is expensive. The so-called "baby advertisements are all for people who can't afford them".
Therefore, the pull plate must cooperate with brand promotion and must create heat.
It is a very effective way to dominate the trading volume on the OS. At that time, Ape shoes only dominated the list for a few days, which aroused the attention of many people, "Isn't Stepn dead? Why is there still such a large trading volume?"
What if it continues to dominate the list for a month? Continue to dominate the list for half a year? What about continuing to dominate the list for a year?
Similarly, there is also a very good move like AirDrop shoes to monkey holders. A lot of people care about letting the monkeys get their shoes and run away first. This is small, the layout is small.
This is obviously a wave of very successful marketing. During that time, Monkey and STEPN were bound. Even gossip is hot.
Of course, there are many ways to build social capital, but the overall approach should be to hold high and fight high, and always focus on the top stream. I'm not the project owner, and I don't want to spend my time doing their own work for them.
When the price of Genesis Shoes is high and there is enough popularity and trading volume, it will become the de facto NFT blue chip.
Then, at that time, the holders of Genesis shoes will have a lot of rights and interests inexplicably, and a lot of people and institutions will send you money. It's like the owner of the monkey is forcibly given the shoe by Step.
Be the first to be an NFT blue chip, this is the chicken. With all the benefits, this is the egg.
Of course, so far, it’s all just my personal fantasies, but it’s not without clues. List a few details, let’s go slowly:
In Stepn's built-in trading market, there has been no screening condition for Genesis Shoes for a long time. Why didn't the project team implement such a simple function before. And now do it?
Why is the built-in trading market made into a web version?
There are still many details, you can only dig slowly and continue to pay attention.
Of course, I am not saying that Genesis Shoes will definitely become an NFT blue chip. My confidence in this matter is not that high. However, the odds on this matter are particularly high.
Once made, it is 1 Genesis shoe 1 BAYC.
At least 50 times the odds.
And looking at the current floor price of Genesis shoes, it is obvious that most people have not yet realized this matter.
The full text is over.