"Lianxin" and "Daily Currency Research" cooperated to plan a special topic, recruiting a total of more than 100,000 followers and many well-known KOLs, interviewing them on how they view future trends, investment allocation, etc. In the dead bear market and strong global regulation, these "Degen" who are working hard to study the innovation and development of cryptocurrencies, do you have any investment wisdom and trend views that you don't know?
What do you think is the cryptocurrency trend in the second half of 2023?
Coinversation
Xiaona: Personally, I think the trend in the second half of 2023 will be relatively mediocre, and the probability of a big bull or another deep pit will not be too high. Compared with 2022, the probability of another event comparable to ftx luna is too low
Bee: I think the market in the second half of 2023 is down. Looming issues like the debt ceiling and banking crisis, combined with the crypto market's correlation to stock market moves, and the lack of a strong narrative or catalyst make me skeptical that the crypto market will turn bullish this year. As much as I would love for it to happen, I don't see a clear bullish turn in the second half of 2023.
Lao Bai
From a downward perspective, the current market does not have the basis for the "big thunder" events such as Luna, 3AC, and FTX in 2022, and the interest rate hike is coming to an end, so it is very difficult to break below the low point at the end of last year. The macro does not meet the "deep bear" conditions.
From an upward perspective, the current market lacks core innovations such as new public chains and DeFi, and the only major event worth looking forward to in the second half of the year is the upgrade of Ethereum Cancun. However, new tokens such as Aptos, OP, Arb, Sui, etc. are launched with billions or tens of billions of FDV, making it difficult for the Liquidity poor market to digest. Although the interest rate hike has stopped, the interest rate is likely to remain high, and it is unlikely to cut interest rates before the end of the year. Therefore, the circle and the macro market do not have the conditions to "be bullish". Since it is impossible to go deep into bears and bulls, the market can only fluctuate up and down.
Alvin
At present, there is still no signal that makes me think that it will be able to recover this year, and the market is still relatively conservative. In Q3 and Q4, you can start to pay attention to the layer 2 trend that may be brought about by the Cancun upgrade. However, the worst situation may have passed. Come again Just hold on and wait until next year's bitcoin halving.
2lambro
I'm personally Bearish. The key reason is that there are no major events in the overall economy and the currency market that will happen recently. For example, what major events do we now expect to happen? It may have been an Ethereum merger before, but now it's a Chinese narrative...or is it regulation? I'm glad the market picked up the pace, but I really don't see any good narratives coming and I hope I'm wrong.
raccoon
I don't know, I'm not good at judging medium and long-term trends.
Which blockchain track are you following recently?
Coinversation
Xiaona: Personally, I mainly focus on DeFi, especially the Derivatives.
Compared with traditional finance, this track is still in the early stage of DeFi, and there is enough space for the market to develop; although many people think that DeFi is not mainstream, I am personally more interested, and I think DeFi is an important part of other sectors in the blockchain industry. the foundation of development.
Bee: My field of attention has always been DeFi. The track I am currently paying close attention to includes Derivatives trading agreements, including volatility products agreements, contract transactions, options, and interest rate swap (intesrest swap) and other types of agreements. The three projects that I pay close attention to are GammaSwap (I am a member of its team, of course I have some personal biases, and I am not against letting readers know), Dopex and Pendle Finance.
Lao Bai
The tracks of recent attention are mainly the following three:
Public chain – The public chain is an eternal topic of the blockchain, and it is also the most important infrastructure, so we must keep an eye on it all the time. The public chain track is currently mainly looking at modular technologies, such as RAAS (Rollup as a Service), which was particularly popular some time ago, and projects that can really improve the performance ceiling of EVM, such as the ABCDE I mentioned on Twitter before. "mysterious" items.
GameFi – At present, the innovation of DeFi has fallen into a relative bottleneck, and the way to get out of the circle is temporarily unclear, so GameFi may still be the best way to break the circle. After experiencing the Play2Earn bubble, there are many new attempts on the GameFi track , including Play & Earn, Play2Own, Bet/Risk/Skill 2 Earn, Fully Onchain Game (Autonomous World), etc., its vitality obviously surpasses that of DeFi and NFT, and the overall financing amount of the track is also very high. In the next 1-2 years, there will be I hope that a circle-breaking application will be born.
AI – With the popularity of ChatGPT, AI has become the most important topic in the technology and financial circles, and US stocks have been brought up by AI. And this wave of AI is no longer a bubble, but can actually change the underlying technology of human life and applications. It is often said that AI represents productivity, and blockchain represents production relations. How to realize the combination of AI and blockchain may become extremely critical in the next round of bull market, and it is very likely to become the main engine of the next round of bull market, because looking back on the past Two rounds of bull market, each time must be accompanied by new technological innovations and new asset classes. In 17 years, ETH and ICO, in 21 years, new public chains, Defi and NFT, and in 25 years, the most promising ones so far are Game and AI . In the primary market, more and more projects are trying and exploring in this direction. I personally feel that AI is very likely to be combined with NFT, opening up new applications and empowerment scenarios for NFT outside of PFP.
Alvin
The most recent focus is on the LSDFi protocol. It is the track that I think can last until the next bull market. There are factors such as ether gradually becoming a deflationary asset and a gradual increase in the pledge rate on the chain. At the same time, whether it is a new protocol or a blue chip DeFi such as Curve and Frax have also joined the battlefield one after another. There will definitely be a place for LSD in the next bull market, so you can start paying attention in the near future.
2lambro
I have been paying attention to the Layer 2 ecology of Ethereum. I thought that the Layer 2 ecology would be rotated, just like the previous era of SOL, AVAX, and BSC, but there has been no progress recently.
I spent a lot of time on the research on the "yield market" earlier this year, such as Pendle and many small projects (I don't want industry distribution here). Some of these DeFi agreements come from the sustainable yield of GLP+LSD income. However, I think its current price is already priced in, unless the market picks up and overall yields rise. I believe most retail investors still don't understand the power of the yield market. Perpetual Protocol is still an agreement that I am very concerned about, and the Real Yield market is still in its early days.
raccoon
Wallet and Perp DEX. The wallet is the traffic entrance. Metamask has repeatedly hinted before issuing coins. When other wallets have been grabbing the market share of Metamask, they will definitely accelerate the improvement of user experience. Only the rolled up track will have a chance, and the ceiling of this track is high. In fact, there is data to study, and unlike DEX, which can be studied only with Dune, the market efficiency is not high, and there will be many cases of wrong prices. There are three main points of attention: CEX wallets (OKX, Coinbase), mobile wallets (Trust Wallet, Uniswap) and Multichain wallets (Frame, Rabby), Account Abstraction wallets, Social Recovery and zk wallets do not pay much attention because the valuation is expensive , and it is still in the stage of drawing a big cake, there is no data, and the wallet of the existing brand can also be transformed to do this, so there is a lot of uncertainty.
How do you manage your portfolio, what is the logic for adding/reducing positions?
Coinversation
Xiaona: I am very good at this, so I will not mislead you
Bee: I am a long-term ETH holder, so my main focus is to accumulate as much ETH as possible. My speculative investment in altcoins is ultimately converted to ETH to maximize returns.
I wouldn't invest in an altcoin if I didn't think it would eventually grow faster than ETH . However, I generally avoid frequent speculation because I think the cryptocurrency market is heavily influenced by narrative shifts, so I don't always take the time to follow and analyze.
At present, 90% of my cryptocurrency allocation is on ETH , and there are some Stablecoin allocations, so that I can buy when the market goes down
Lao Bai
As mentioned above, I am not good at secondary market analysis, so the management of investment portfolio and the logic of increasing and reducing positions are very amateurish and simple. Basically, I buy promising track targets when I feel low, and then Hodl, When the price rises to relative satisfaction or falls and loses confidence, sell/cut the meat. DeFi Summer will often go to various chains to do Yield Farming. Later, as the overall DeFi track becomes colder, it will rarely participate. The only thing worth mentioning is that I never touch leverage and contracts, and always only play spot.
Alvin
Since the bear market, fixed investment has always been the main focus, and at least half of the assets may be used for fixed investment. Bear market is a stage where you can work hard to accumulate chips. You must not be too aggressive to make your principal less and less, and then try to find a chance of winning. For the winning team in the next bull market, the bear market is a time when you can effectively judge which teams are capable. 5-10% of the assets are used to follow the hot spots in the market, and new things are not excluded. You can still rush if you have the opportunity.
2lambro
My logic is simple, if you don't stud, you won't be locked up. There are too many opportunities in the currency circle, wait for your best opportunity, continue to work hard to find your strengths, don't just gamble in the market, because everyone is impatient.
raccoon
Decentralization is the core. Diversify different asset classes, put them in different places, and choose different risks. In this way, you don’t have to be afraid of the risk of a single investment. You have a healthy mentality, and you can be more comfortable with high, medium and low risks. All Yields have to do Risk-adjustment by themselves. If it is appropriate, no matter how high the risk is, you can get an appropriate amount of funds. Don’t say that there is a hard rule for yourself. The higher the Yield, the higher the risk, but the lower the Yield, the lower the risk. The risk here that many people ignore is Smart Contract Risk and Centralization Risk. It’s not that you can’t go if you have these two risks, but you must consider whether you put AAVE on Binance, GMX on Earth Mining, or banks.
You have $1,000 and $100,000 respectively, what would you do?
Coinversation
Bee: The $100,000 case is easier to answer. Simply buy ETH because it is the asset I have the most confidence in. If it is $1000, I will invest in a project with a strong team and new narrative, such as GMX upcoming V2 upgrade, as a short-term speculative investment
Xiaona: Like Bee, 90% of my assets will be allocated in mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH , especially ETH; the other 10% will be used for speculation
Lao Bai
$1,000 – I will look for small coins with low market value that are hot, such as PEPE, double the cost, save the profit to fly, change places with one shot, constantly switch hot spots, and strive to quickly expand the principal.
$100,000 – Half of it is used to configure BTC and ETH, and the other half is used to configure high-quality copycats that either have good fundamentals and feel oversold, or have hot spots inside and outside the circle in the future.
Alvin
$100,000: Concentrate on holding Ethereum, find a few Yield Farming opportunities that can be put into the next bull market for a long time, and configure a few blue-chip NFTs that are expected to develop steadily into the next bull market, and operate infrequently.
$1,000: AirDrop are definitely required, and then try to pay attention to the development of each public chain, try to form a public chain ETF, or a DeFi ETF, so that the long-term rewards will be high
2lambro
If I only have $1k, I don't think about what coin to buy, but invest in myself to get a better salary and keep my living expenses as low as possible.
raccoon
It is recommended not to invest only $1,000, and the gas fee will also pay you poorly. I will choose to use Fiat to eat seafood. If it is $100,000, I will use part of it to fry NFT. The capacity is not large but hard work can make money. The rest can be put in the wallet, CEX or bank, and choose a ratio that is comfortable for you.
How do you keep track of information?
Coinversation
Xiaona: twitter and discord are the best sources of crypto information, but you need to filter it yourself, and the information is more complicated; here you can also recommend our telegram group "Talk about East and West", which gathers a group of very powerful players in the currency circle. Both share very valuable information, and it is very timely, and I have also benefited a lot from it
Bee: I learn about the latest developments in the currency circle through Twitter. For an analysis of the general economic outlook, I enjoy reading Arthur Hayes, founder of the BitMEX exchange.
Lao Bai
three channels. The first is to see for yourself, the main channels are Chainfeeds and Twitter; the second is to communicate with peers in the circle; the third is to communicate with the primary market and various Startup Founders.
Alvin
The first-hand information will be Discord, and the trend of market narratives will be based on various types of KOL information on Twitter. There will be a framework for self-categorization, to cultivate your sensitivity to the market, and to grasp the emotional changes of each narrative. Regularly watch Alphascan, Defillama, Arkham and other tools can help you find Alpha in advance.
2lambro
I follow Alvin0617 devoutly
raccoon
When you look at Twitter and Discord, you don't look at the information itself, but at the expression of the information and the identity and motivation of the expresser.
What do you think about the gradual pressure of US regulation and the gradual opening up of Asia?
Coinversation
Bee: If the U.S. regulatory pressure does not ease, I believe that other countries will gradually take the lead in the field of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. I think Asia is ready for the next crypto boom.
Lao Bai
Personal feeling is two reasons. The short-term reason is that the thunderstorm of FTX has caused the United States to have sufficient reasons to worry about such incidents. This is the typical Wall Street style of "misappropriation of customer assets and excessive speculation in the bull market". Passed to the traditional financial system, so it is necessary to strengthen supervision to avoid similar incidents
Hong Kong and other Asian regions are less affected by events such as FTX and have no similar concerns. The long-term reason is that the overall trillion-dollar market value of the encryption industry is only equivalent to half an apple. The United States, a superpower, does not have such an urgent and obvious demand for such financial innovation, especially the recent momentum and opportunities brought by AI.
As a small country, Singapore lacks resources, and finance, technology, and logistics are pillar industries, so it is naturally more open to new things and high-tech projects. Hong Kong, as the former Asian financial center, has lost its status in recent years and has been overtaken by Singapore and Shanghai. Therefore, blockchain and Web3, which are expected to be "turnaround cards", must be grasped as soon as possible. Hold on, take the lead.
Alvin
The mood is a bit contradictory. On the one hand, I am happy that the Asian blockchain industry is developing more actively because of the US supervision. On the other hand, I also think that the overall market will be able to recover, and the next bull market will still need the clarification of the US situation. It is very interesting that various Asian countries will slowly embark on their own different paths in 2023.
2lambro
No comment, this is not my major, I only pay attention to the whereabouts of funds in the market, and hope that the decentralized world will have a place in the future capital market.
raccoon
Buying both sides is the best way, don't have too much prejudice against China/Taiwan/Hong Kong/Southeast Asia, and don't have too much illusion. The valuation is now of the same quality. Asian projects feel one-third of American projects, and it used to be one-fifth. There is a reason for the discount, but it is cheap enough to buy.
Disclaimer: All the above sharing does not constitute investment advice. All AirDrop projects are not sure whether they will be rewarded. Please participate according to your own circumstances.
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